交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral due to capacity expansion control by carbon neutrality, weak downstream demand, continued weakness in the real estate market, and volatile short - term macro sentiment. The basis shows a discount to futures, also indicating neutrality. The inventory situation is neutral, the disk is bearish, and the main position is bullish. Overall, the aluminum price is expected to oscillate due to the long - term positive impact of carbon neutrality on aluminum prices and the expansion of steel and aluminum tariffs by the US [2]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the aluminum market. Bullish factors include capacity expansion control by carbon neutrality, geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine affecting Russian aluminum supply, and potential interest rate cuts. Bearish factors are the global economic pessimism and high aluminum prices suppressing downstream consumption, as well as the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Neutral, with carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a volatile macro - environment [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 20660, with a basis of - 35, showing a discount to futures, considered neutral [2]. - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory decreased by 1518 tons to 124078 tons last week, regarded as neutral [2]. - Disk: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward, indicating a bearish trend [2]. - Main Position: The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing, considered bullish [2]. - Expectation: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate due to the long - term positive impact of carbon neutrality and the expansion of steel and aluminum tariffs by the US [2]. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish Factors: Capacity expansion control by carbon neutrality, geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine affecting Russian aluminum supply, and potential interest rate cuts [3]. - Bearish Factors: Global economic pessimism and high aluminum prices suppressing downstream consumption, cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products [3]. Daily Summary - Spot Prices: Shanghai's yesterday's spot middle - price was 70770, down 375; Nanchu's was 70690, down 450; today's Yangtze River's was 70870, down 400 [4]. - Inventory: Warehouse receipt inventory was 70798 tons, an increase of 699 tons; LME inventory (daily) was 74750 tons, a decrease of 425 tons; SHFE inventory (weekly) was 136300 tons, an increase of 29728 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - China's Annual Supply - Demand Balance of Aluminum (in 10,000 tons): From 2018 to 2023, there was a supply shortage in most years, with shortages of 47.61, 68.61, - 1.3, 14.2, 29.98, and 4.31 respectively. In 2024, there is an expected supply surplus of 15 [22].