Report Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View - Glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to supply decline, poor terminal demand, and inventory rebound [2][5]. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract increased by 4.39% to 1189 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shahe safety large board remained unchanged at 1056 yuan/ton, and the main basis decreased by 60.24% to -133 yuan/ton [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large boards in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1056 yuan/ton, remaining flat from the previous day [11]. Fundamental - Cost Side - No specific content provided. Fundamental - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines is 225, with an operating rate of 75.92%, at a historical low for the same period; the daily melting volume is 160,200 tons, the lowest in the same period in history and showing signs of stabilization and recovery [21][23]. Fundamental - Demand - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons; downstream processing plant orders are at a historical low for the same period due to weak real - estate terminal demand [27]. Fundamental - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.05 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.77% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [40]. Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production, consumption, and net import proportion of float glass have shown different trends, with production growth rates ranging from -3.59% to 9.88% and consumption growth rates from -2.64% to 6.87% [41]. Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: There is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy [3]. - Negative Factors: Weak real - estate terminal demand, poor capital recovery in the processing industry, cautious attitudes of traders and processors, and the fading of the "anti - involution" market sentiment [4].
大越期货投资咨询部胡毓秀
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-08 02:36