白糖早报-20250908

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton global sugar supply deficit in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. Conab estimates Brazil's central - southern 25/26 sugar production at 40.6 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous estimate. As of the end of July 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sales were 9.5498 million tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixes was 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons [5]. - The basis in Liuzhou is 447 (for the 01 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish. As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 1.61 million tons, also bullish. However, the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below it, which is bearish. The main position is bearish, with the net short position decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, also bearish [5]. - International raw sugar has fallen below the 16 - cent mark, and domestic Zhengzhou sugar has weakened accordingly. The domestic consumption peak season has passed, the amount of low - price imported sugar in the market has increased significantly, and the spot price has declined. The futures main contract 01 has fallen to the 5500 mark and is expected to rebound with short - term support [5][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 3.2 Daily Tips - Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the use of sucrose in the new formula of American cola. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, a global supply surplus in the new season, the external sugar price below 16 cents per pound, the opening of the import profit window, and increased import impact [6]. - Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar market. Czarnikow predicts a 7.5 - million - ton surplus, Dataro predicts a 1.53 - million - ton surplus, StoneX predicts a 3.04 - million - ton surplus after a 700,000 - ton downward adjustment, Green Pool predicts a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 million tons, and USDA predicts a 4.7% increase in global sugar production, a 1.4% increase in consumption, and a 13.97 - million - ton surplus [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 3.4 Fundamental Data - The 25/26 supply - demand situation forecasts from different institutions: ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton deficit with 180.6 million tons of production and 180.8 million tons of consumption; Czarnikow predicts a 4.7 - million - ton surplus; StoneX predicts a 1.21 - million - ton surplus [34]. - China's sugar supply - demand balance sheet shows that in the 2025/26 season, the sugarcane planting area is 12.3 million hectares, beet is 2.1 million hectares, sugar production is 11.2 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.9 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [36]. - The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff has been decreasing. In July 2025, with an ICE raw sugar average price of 16.35 cents per pound, the refined and duty - paid cost was 5600 - 5650 yuan per ton [43]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content