大越期货投资咨询部祝森林

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global zinc plate had a supply surplus of 22,700 tons in April 2025, but a supply shortage of 56,500 tons from January to April. The overall fundamentals are considered positive. The basis is neutral, inventory trends are positive, the disk shows a negative trend, the main position is net long with a reduction in long positions, and the expected trend of SHFE zinc ZN2510 is to oscillate weakly [2]. - On September 5, the trading volume of zinc futures decreased, and both long and short positions reduced their holdings. The market may oscillate and consolidate in the short - term. Technically, the price is below the moving average system, the short - term indicator KDJ is rising in the weak area, the trend indicator is declining, the strength of the long side is increasing, the strength of the short side is decreasing, and the dominance of the short side is narrowing. The recommended operation for SHFE zinc ZN2510 is to expect an oscillatory consolidation [18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Futures Market Data - September 5, 2025, Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes: The total trading volume was 170,162 lots, with a total trading value of 1,881,733.09 million yuan. The open interest was 226,104 lots, a decrease of 6,320 lots [3]. - September 5, 2025, Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes: The price of zinc concentrate in Chenzhou increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,690 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingot in Kuaisan increased by 60 yuan/ton to 22,060 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheet decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 4,036 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipe decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 4,451 yuan/ton; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo increased by 50 yuan/ton to 22,570 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha increased by 60 yuan/ton to 27,220 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou remained unchanged at 20,500 yuan/ton; the price of secondary zinc oxide in Linzhou remained unchanged at 7,857 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Inventory Data - National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (August 25 - September 4, 2025): The total inventory increased from 124,800 tons on August 25 to 138,500 tons on September 4, an increase of 8,700 tons compared to August 28 and 5,100 tons compared to September 1 [5]. - September 5, 2025, Futures Exchange Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report: The total warehouse receipts were 40,772 tons, a decrease of 124 tons. Among them, Shanghai had 50 tons (unchanged), Guangdong had 20,073 tons (a decrease of 49 tons), Jiangsu had 0 tons (unchanged), and Tianjin had 20,649 tons (a decrease of 75 tons) [6]. - September 5, 2025, LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics: The total inventory was 54,050 tons, a decrease of 700 tons [7]. 3.3 Price Data - September 5, 2025, National Main Cities Zinc Concentrate Price Summary: The price of zinc concentrate in various regions increased by 50 yuan/ton. For example, the price in Jiyuan, Kunming, and other places was 16,790 yuan/ton, and the price in Chenzhou and Chifeng was 16,690 yuan/ton [8]. - September 5, 2025, National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes: The price of 0 zinc ingots from various manufacturers increased by 50 yuan/ton. For example, the price of Hunan Weichuan Zhidong was 22,290 yuan/ton, and the price of Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry was 22,620 yuan/ton [12]. 3.4 Production Data - June 2025, Domestic Refined Zinc Production: The planned production in June was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production in July was 470,300 tons [14]. 3.5 Processing Fee Data - September 5, 2025, Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes: The processing fees for zinc concentrate in different regions varied. For 50% grade zinc concentrate, the lowest was 3,400 yuan/metal ton in Gaozhou, and the highest was 4,200 yuan/metal ton in Linzhou. The import processing fee for 48% grade zinc concentrate was 80 - 100 US dollars/kiloton [16]. 3.6 Futures Company Position Data - September 5, 2025, Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading Volume and Position Ranking Table (Contract Code: zn2510): The total trading volume of futures companies was 171,841 lots, a decrease of 97,157 lots; the total long position was 72,425 lots, a decrease of 5,040 lots; the total short position was 75,290 lots, a decrease of 4,963 lots [17].