Report Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Date: September 8, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [4] Core Viewpoints - In August, the spot price of eggs fluctuated at a low level. Due to high supply - side pressure, the peak - season expectation was repeatedly disappointed. Although the spot price rebounded this week, the upside space of the rebound is not optimistic because the supply pressure cannot be resolved in the short term. More and longer - term over - culling is needed to restore the supply - demand balance [8]. - In the futures market, contracts in the fourth quarter fell sharply earlier and stabilized this week, but the rebound was limited due to market pessimism. The 10 - contract, a post - festival contract, is relatively restrained, mainly with a rising basis. In the future, near - month contracts should focus on spot price changes. There may be some upward repair space for the 10 - contract, but long - position operations are difficult. The overall egg market is oversupplied. If the low egg price affects subsequent replenishment, a fundamental inflection point may appear in the later fourth quarter. In the short term, it is recommended to reduce positions and monitor spot changes [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: The prices of 10, 11, and 12 egg contracts decreased by 1.72%, 2.24%, and 1.82% respectively. Today, the national egg price rose. The average price in the main production areas was 3.30 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin from yesterday; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.43 yuan/jin, also up 0.07 yuan/jin from yesterday [7]. - Operation Suggestions: Short - term operation suggests reducing positions and paying attention to spot price changes. Although the 10 - contract may have some upward repair space, long - position operations are difficult [8]. 2. Industry News - The inventory of laying hens in production is on an upward trend. As of the end of August, the monthly inventory of laying hens in production was about 1.365 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.7% and a year - on - year increase of 6.0% [9]. - The monthly output of laying - hen chicks by sample enterprises in August was about 39.81 million, slightly less than that in July and significantly less than that in the same period in 2024. The culling volume has gradually increased since August, and the culling age has advanced [9][10].
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250908
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-08 02:52