宏观周报：降息交易or衰退交易？重温资产配置时钟-20250908

Global Market Overview - The US labor market shows significant cooling, with August non-farm payrolls adding only 22,000 jobs and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [9][15] - The Chinese stock market is supported by continuous inflows of southbound funds, while the A-share market experiences adjustments, particularly in high-tech stocks, with the Shanghai Composite Index rebounding to 3,800 points [14][16] - Japan's manufacturing sector continues to contract, but wage growth accelerates, and the US-Japan trade relationship stabilizes, leading to a rebound in the stock market [18][20] - European markets are under pressure due to concerns over the US economic outlook and geopolitical tensions, with major indices declining [19][21] Economic Data Insights - The US economic growth momentum is slowing, with financial liquidity tightening and rising economic surprise indices, while consumer resilience is noted despite a cooling job market [30][38] - In China, structural recovery is observed, with policies gradually showing effects, but challenges remain in demand insufficiency [51][56] Investment Strategy and Recommendations - The report emphasizes capturing opportunities in bond assets during the rate cut cycle and highlights that economic recession may occur abruptly rather than gradually [10][52] - It suggests that the US economy may enter a stagflation phase, leading to a shift in asset allocation strategies, favoring bonds over equities in a recession scenario [51][69] - The report recommends increasing commodity positions, particularly in gold, while maintaining a cautious approach towards industrial metals based on economic conditions [67][73]