甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250908

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a morning report on methanol and polyolefins, released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on September 8, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Methanol Analysis - Price Data: From September 1 - 5, 2025,动力煤期货 remained at 801, while prices of various methanol spot markets and related indicators showed certain changes. For example, the Jiangsu spot price increased from 2230 to 2280, with a daily change of 25 [2] - Viewpoint: The trading logic is the pressure transfer from ports to the inland. The inland has seasonal stocking demand and new - device stocking increment from Lianhong, but port back - flow will impact the inland. Currently, the price is benchmarked against inland prices. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Back - flow can relieve port pressure but will affect inland valuation. Valuation, inventory, and drivers are not favorable, so bottom - fishing should wait [2] Group 3: Plastic (Polyethylene) Analysis - Price Data: From September 1 - 5, 2025, Northeast Asia ethylene remained at 840. Prices of different polyethylene products in various regions and related indicators had some changes. For example, the price of East China LD decreased from 9615 to 9575, with a daily change of - 15 [6] - Viewpoint: Polyethylene inventory is neutral overall. The two - oil inventory is neutral year - on - year, with upstream two - oil and coal - chemical industries de - stocking, and social inventory remaining flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and other price differences are volatile. September maintenance is flat month - on - month, and recent domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotations, as well as new - device commissioning in 2025 [6] Group 4: PP (Polypropylene) Analysis - Price Data: From September 1 - 5, 2025, prices of various polypropylene - related products and indicators changed. For example, Shandong propylene decreased from 6580 to 6540, with a daily change of - 50 [8] - Viewpoint: Polypropylene upstream two - oil and mid - stream inventories are de - stocking. The basis is - 60, non - standard price differences are neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports are good this year. Non - standard price differences are neutral, and prices in Europe and the US are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is volatile, and powder production starts are stable. Drawing production scheduling is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. In the context of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to have a slightly excessive supply pressure. If exports continue to increase or PDH device maintenance is high, supply pressure can be relieved to a neutral level [8] Group 5: PVC Analysis - Price Data: From September 1 - 5, 2025, prices of various PVC - related products and indicators changed. For example, Shandong caustic soda increased from 882 to 892, with a daily change of 10 [8] - Viewpoint: The basis of 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream operation starts are seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Summer maintenance of northwest devices is seasonal, and the load center is between spring maintenance and Q1 high production. In Q4, attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability. Near - term export orders have slightly declined. Coal sentiment is good, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profit is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The export counter - offer of caustic soda is FOB380. PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, cost is stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operation starts [8]