Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan. The domestic stock market volatility increased, and the market risk - preference volatility rose. Overseas, the expectation of a US interest - rate cut supported commodity prices. In the domestic market, the monthly spread of Shanghai copper slightly increased, the spot import window opened, and the LME cash - 3m spread narrowed. The short - term scrap - refined substitution effect may decline marginally. With the arrival of the consumption peak season in September, the domestic consumption is expected to be boosted, and attention should be paid to the price - fixing support of Shanghai copper at 78,500 - 79,500 yuan [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly, and imports from January to July provided an increment. Downstream construction improved, but overseas demand declined significantly. In September, inventory is expected to decrease. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand. In the context of low inventory, hold at low prices and pay attention to the far - month spread and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1]. - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. The domestic TC decreased slightly, and the imported TC increased. In September, smelting production decreased slightly due to concentrated maintenance. Overseas, the quarterly mine increment exceeded expectations, and zinc ore imports in July reached the highest in the past three years. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, while overseas European demand is average. The current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets may further differentiate. In terms of strategy, it is supported by the interest - rate cut expectation and domestic commodity sentiment in the short - term, and a medium - to - long - term short position can be configured. The internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued, and attention can be paid to the 10 - 12 positive arbitrage opportunity [2]. - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel remained at a high level, demand was weak overall, and inventory increased slightly in the domestic market and significantly overseas. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the macro - level "anti - involution" sentiment has risen again. The geopolitical risk in Indonesia has been alleviated, and production is not affected for the time being [3][4]. - For stainless steel, supply is expected to gradually resume in northern regions affected by the military parade. Demand is mainly driven by rigid needs. Costs are relatively stable, and inventory remains at a certain level. The overall fundamentals are weak, and it follows the "anti - involution" expectation in the short - term [5]. - Lead prices fluctuated this week. Supply is expected to be tight, with the LME registered warehouse receipts decreasing by 10,000 tons. Demand has improved slightly, but inventory is at a high level. It is expected that the supply will remain flat in September, and the price will maintain a low - level fluctuation, with an expected range of 16,800 - 16,900 yuan [6]. - Tin prices fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply is expected to be tight, with some domestic smelters reducing production and overseas production recovery facing constraints. Demand has a peak - season expectation but also has some uncertainties. The domestic fundamentals are in a state of weak supply and demand in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and hold near the cost line in the medium - to - long - term [6][8]. - For industrial silicon, the resumption of production in Xinjiang is slow, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable. The current balance in September is in a tight state, and the balance change mainly depends on the resumption of production of Hesheng. In the short - term, the supply - demand relationship in September and October remains in a tight balance. In the medium - to - long - term, the industry is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [9]. - Carbonate lithium prices fluctuated this week. The current market has sufficient spot supply and good downstream peak - season restocking. The core contradiction is the resource - side compliance disturbance under the background of over - capacity. During the seasonal peak season, the monthly balance turns to continuous inventory reduction, but the amplitude is small. Before the supply - side disturbance is realized, the price has strong downward support, and after the realization, the price elasticity is high [10][11]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Price and Market Conditions: This week, copper prices fluctuated around 80,000 yuan. The domestic stock market was volatile, and overseas, the interest - rate cut expectation supported commodity prices. The monthly spread of Shanghai copper increased slightly, the spot import window opened, and the LME cash - 3m spread narrowed [1]. - Fundamentals: The scrap - refined spread of copper slightly recovered. The start - up rate of downstream enterprises is expected to increase in September. The supply side has some maintenance and production reduction. The short - term scrap - refined substitution effect may decline marginally [1]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the price - fixing support of Shanghai copper at 78,500 - 79,500 yuan [1]. Aluminum - Price and Market Conditions: Aluminum prices fluctuated slightly. Supply increased slightly, and downstream construction improved, but overseas demand declined significantly [1]. - Inventory: In September, inventory is expected to decrease [1]. - Strategy: In the context of low inventory, hold at low prices and pay attention to the far - month spread and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1]. Zinc - Price and Market Conditions: Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. The domestic TC decreased slightly, and the imported TC increased [2]. - Supply and Demand: In September, smelting production decreased slightly due to concentrated maintenance. Overseas, the quarterly mine increment exceeded expectations. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas European demand is average [2]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory oscillated and increased, and overseas LME inventory decreased rapidly [2]. - Strategy: Short - term support from interest - rate cut expectation and domestic commodity sentiment, medium - to - long - term short position configuration. Continue to hold the internal - external positive arbitrage and pay attention to the 10 - 12 positive arbitrage opportunity [2]. Nickel - Price and Market Conditions: Nickel prices declined slightly. Supply remained at a high level, and demand was weak overall [3][4]. - Inventory: Inventory increased slightly in the domestic market and significantly overseas [3][4]. - Strategy: The short - term fundamentals are weak, and pay attention to the geopolitical situation in Indonesia [3][4]. Stainless Steel - Price and Market Conditions: Stainless steel prices fluctuated slightly. Supply is expected to gradually resume, and demand is mainly driven by rigid needs [5]. - Cost and Inventory: Costs are relatively stable, and inventory remains at a certain level [5]. - Strategy: The overall fundamentals are weak, and it follows the "anti - involution" expectation in the short - term [5]. Lead - Price and Market Conditions: Lead prices fluctuated. Supply is expected to be tight, and demand has improved slightly [6]. - Inventory: Inventory is at a high level, and the exchange inventory has reached a historical high of nearly 70,000 tons [6]. - Strategy: It is expected that the price will maintain a low - level fluctuation, with an expected range of 16,800 - 16,900 yuan [6]. Tin - Price and Market Conditions: Tin prices fluctuated narrowly. Supply is expected to be tight, and demand has a peak - season expectation [6][8]. - Inventory: Domestic inventory decreased slightly, and overseas LME inventory is at a low level [6]. - Strategy: Wait and see in the short - term and hold near the cost line in the medium - to - long - term [8]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Market Conditions: Industrial silicon prices fluctuated. The resumption of production in Xinjiang is slow, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable [9]. - Supply and Demand: The current balance in September is in a tight state, and the balance change mainly depends on the resumption of production of Hesheng [9]. - Strategy: In the short - term, the supply - demand relationship in September and October remains in a tight balance. In the medium - to - long - term, the industry is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [9]. Carbonate Lithium - Price and Market Conditions: Carbonate lithium prices fluctuated. The market has sufficient spot supply and good downstream peak - season restocking [10]. - Core Contradiction: The core contradiction is the resource - side compliance disturbance under the background of over - capacity [10]. - Inventory and Strategy: During the seasonal peak season, the monthly balance turns to continuous inventory reduction, but the amplitude is small. Before the supply - side disturbance is realized, the price has strong downward support, and after the realization, the price elasticity is high [10][11].
永安期货有色早报-20250908
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-09-08 09:48