甲醇周报：伊朗限气暂未证伪、反内卷政策再次发酵，甲醇止跌反弹-20250908

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Recently, under the combined effect of rumors of gas field inspections in Iran in the industrial aspect and the second fermentation of the anti - involution expectation in the macro aspect, methanol stopped falling and fluctuated strongly. Fundamentally, in the short term, the number of maintenance devices has increased, and supply may decline slightly, but compared with the same period in previous years, domestic supply is still relatively abundant. In terms of demand, MTO profits have recovered, the enthusiasm of external methanol - purchasing devices in the East China region to start work has increased, and Zhejiang Xingxing plans to restart. At the same time, with the arrival of the peak season, downstream demand has improved marginally. However, a significant increase in overseas supplies has led to accelerated inventory accumulation at ports, and the basis in the East China region has remained low. Methanol is still in a state of strong supply and weak demand. Recently, news of gas field inspections in Iran has boosted the market's bullish sentiment, and news related to anti - involution has once again driven up commodity prices. A short - term bullish and fluctuating approach should be taken, but the sustainability requires confirmation of news of reduced overseas supply and the strength of the demand side. Attention should be paid to taking profits [1][24]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Trend Review - Last week, methanol continued its weak trend. On Monday, boosted by news such as gas restrictions in Iran, the futures market rebounded from the bottom and then fluctuated. On Friday, affected by the second fermentation of anti - involution news, most industrial products rose, and the main methanol contract returned to the 2400 yuan/ton level. Although the spot market price increased, it was relatively weak compared with the futures market. The increase in imports led to continuous increases in port inventories, and the regional basis continued to weaken. The market price increase in the Northwest region was small, and manufacturers sold goods at discounted prices. On September 5, the import price in Taicang was 2275 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; the market price in Guangdong was 2270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23 yuan/ton; the market price in southern Shandong was 2300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton; the mainstream market price in Sichuan and Chongqing was 2247.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 42.5 yuan/ton; the mainstream market price in Shaanxi was 2125 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 35 yuan/ton; and the mainstream market price in Inner Mongolia was 2067.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 17.5 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Supply Side - Domestic Supply: From January to August, the cumulative domestic methanol production was 67.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.76 million tons, or 13.05%. Recently, Xinjiang Tianye expanded its capacity to 600,000 tons/year, further increasing domestic production capacity. In the statistical period, multiple devices such as Xinxiang Zhongxin, Shanxi Linxin, and Shanxi Coking restarted, and there were few new maintenance and shutdown devices, so supply increased month - on - month. However, from the perspective of device maintenance plans, this week, some devices will stop production, and domestic supply may decline slightly. On September 5, the domestic methanol device capacity utilization rate was 86.63%, a month - on - month increase of 1.77 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.47 percentage points; the weekly output was 1.9628 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 44,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 190,500 tons [6]. - Overseas Supply: Overseas device operating rates and production continued to increase. Except for the MHTL2 and 3 devices in South America and the Brunei BMC device, which stopped for several days and the restart time is to be determined, the rest of the devices were mostly operating normally. From January to July, the cumulative domestic methanol imports were 6.4799 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.66%. The main reason was the gas restrictions in Iran in the first quarter, which led to a decrease in overseas supply. Since May, imports have increased significantly. In July, imports declined. In July and August, international methanol production was 4.62 million tons, the second - highest in the year. International demand was weak, and US sanctions on Indian chemical companies accelerated the flow of international supplies to China, resulting in a significant increase in domestic methanol imports. It is expected that imports in September will remain above 1.5 million tons. There are rumors that Iranian gas fields plan to conduct rotational inspections in October, and it is not clear whether gas restrictions will be advanced. If gas restrictions are advanced this year, the pressure brought by the increase in overseas supply will be significantly alleviated. On September 5, the overseas methanol device capacity utilization rate was 74.73%, a month - on - month increase of 0.21 percentage points, and the weekly output was 1.0901 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3000 tons [10]. 3. Demand Side - MTO Devices: The capacity utilization rate of MTO devices decreased slightly. The third - phase MTO device of Ningxia Baofeng stopped production, and the upstream methanol device was still operating and was also planned to be shut down for maintenance. Currently, methanol is mainly stored in the warehouse, having limited impact on the market. In the East China region, the load of Nanjing Chengzhi was slightly increased, and Zhejiang Xingxing may restart soon. The profit of MTO devices in the East China region has recovered, and the enthusiasm of enterprises to start work has increased, so the demand for methanol in the region is expected to increase. On September 5, the capacity utilization rate of MTO devices was 84.72%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.34 percentage points [12]. - Traditional Downstream Devices: The capacity utilization rates of most traditional downstream devices decreased. Currently, downstream demand has not improved significantly, and although device profits have recovered, most are still in the red. Downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs. With the decrease in temperature, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season has begun, and downstream demand is expected to improve marginally. However, according to statistics, the inventory of sample downstream manufacturers is at a relatively high level compared with the same period, which may limit the amount of downstream inventory replenishment [15]. 4. Inventory - Last week, the arrival volume of methanol at ports was 467,200 tons, higher than expected. Although downstream demand was acceptable, it was less than the increase in supply, and port inventories increased by 128,400 tons. Due to the price advantage of imported resources, some port supplies were diverted to surrounding provinces, and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. The planned arrival volume this week may still be over 400,000 tons, and inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The inventory of inland manufacturers also increased. Some maintenance projects in production areas have gradually resumed work, supply has increased, the sales of some manufacturers in the Northwest are average, and transportation is restricted to some extent, so inventory continues to accumulate. With the arrival of the peak season and the resumption of transportation, manufacturers may start to reduce inventory. On September 5, the total social inventory of methanol was 1.4277 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 128,400 tons and a year - on - year increase of 253,300 tons. Among them, port inventory was 1.7687 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 136,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 190,800 tons; manufacturer inventory was 341,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 62,500 tons; downstream enterprise inventory was 158,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 18,700 tons [17][18]. 5. Cost Side - Recently, the profits of methanol devices have shown mixed trends. The theoretical profit of coal - based production in production areas has slightly narrowed, while the profit of coal - based projects in consumption areas has slightly expanded. The theoretical profits of coke - oven gas - based and natural - gas - based production have improved. Recently, coal prices have continued to decline. The port market is inactive, traders are more willing to sell, and downstream price - pressing is common. Power plants' own inventories are relatively safe, and they have no intention to replenish large - scale inventories. The activity in the pit - mouth market has decreased, and the middle and lower reaches are more wait - and - see, with low enthusiasm for hauling, and market prices are under pressure. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of 462 sample mines was 89.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 percentage point, and the daily output was 537,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 500 tons. Coal mines that stopped production at the beginning of the month have gradually resumed, and coal mines that previously reduced or restricted production have gradually resumed work. On the demand side, the average national temperature has decreased, the daily consumption of power plants has declined, and most power plants' inventories are above the safety line, with low enthusiasm for procurement. In the future, the daily consumption of power plants will further decrease, and it is expected that there will be no large - scale centralized inventory replenishment. In terms of non - power use, the profits of coal - chemical products are considerable, and enterprises' operations are mostly maintained at a high level, with relatively active procurement. In terms of imports, domestic coal prices have declined, and with the decline in power plant consumption, end - users are more wait - and - see, and the procurement rhythm of imported coal has also slowed down. In summary, coal mines that previously reduced or restricted production have gradually resumed, the "peak - summer power consumption" period is basically over, the daily consumption of power plants is gradually declining, and current inventories are still above the safety line. The possibility of large - scale centralized procurement in the future is low, coal prices are unlikely to rise in the short term, and the cost support for methanol has weakened [20][22].