原油周评：增产再临，油价依然承压

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, oil prices showed some resilience in the first half but dropped significantly in the second half due to OPEC+ production increase news. In the current market, the supply-side pressure in the commodity attribute has increased, and the possibility of medium - to long - term supply contraction has decreased, which is the core factor suppressing oil prices. In terms of financial attributes, even if interest rate cuts occur as expected, they may not boost oil prices. Politically, the geopolitical situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict may cool down, reducing the potential impact on oil - producing countries. Overall, oil prices will lack upward momentum and show a weakening trend [66]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, oil prices dropped significantly in the second half due to OPEC+ production increase news. Considering the high expectation of interest rate cuts but the pessimistic macro - economic outlook and the loose supply trend, oil prices are expected to remain weak this week. It is recommended to focus on the price range of [460 - 495] yuan/barrel, conduct high - selling and low - buying within the range, and adopt a short - term bearish strategy on rallies [13]. 3.2 Market Review - In the first half of last week, oil prices rebounded slightly due to the high expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. However, in the second half, under the influence of OPEC+ production increase news, concerns about supply - side loosening led to a continuous decline in oil prices, reaching a one - month low [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macro - economic Factors - Poor Non - farm Performance and Difficult Interest Rate Cut to Boost: The US non - farm payrolls in August increased by only 22,000, far lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The June non - farm payrolls were revised down to - 13,000, the first negative growth since December 2020. Although the market increased bets on the Fed's rapid and continuous interest rate cuts, the traditional "interest rate cut - price increase" logic may not apply, and even if the Fed cuts interest rates as expected, it may be difficult to boost the commodity market [25]. - Labor Market Suppresses Market Confidence: The poor non - farm data has raised concerns about the US labor market, which in turn suppresses market confidence [25]. - Political Attribute Cooling: Russian President Putin's statement about the possibility of ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict through negotiation has alleviated market concerns about geopolitical fluctuations to some extent [29]. 3.3.2 Supply - side Factors - OPEC+ Maintains Production Increase: OPEC+ countries' production increased in July compared to June, with a total increase of 335,000 barrels per day [33]. - October Production Increase Implementation: OPEC+ is expected to approve a production increase of about 137,000 barrels per day in October, starting to gradually cancel the 1.66 million barrels per day production cut, which will further suppress oil prices [34]. - Saudi Arabia and Russia Maintain Production Increase: The production of Saudi Arabia and Russia has been increasing [33]. - Iran and Iraq Compensatory Production Cuts: Specific production data of Iran and Iraq are provided, showing their production trends [33]. - US Production Stabilizes and Recovers: The US oil production has shown a stable recovery trend [45]. 3.3.3 Demand - side Factors - Consumption Expectation Cooling: The consumption expectation in the oil market is gradually cooling down [47]. - Weak Manufacturing in China and the US: The manufacturing PMIs in the US and China are not improving, indicating weak demand for oil in the manufacturing sector [50]. - Diesel Production as the Focus: Diesel production has become the focus in the oil market [54]. 3.3.4 Inventory Factors - Crude Oil Inventory Build - up: The US API and EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased in the week ending August 29, which may reduce the market's expectation of inventory depletion and increase the pressure on oil prices [56]. - Gasoline Production Cut and Diesel Recovery: US gasoline inventory decreased while refined oil inventory increased in the week ending August 29. Refineries' strategy of reducing gasoline production and increasing diesel production remains unchanged, and the demand for diesel is expected to increase with the decrease in summer travel consumption [60]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - Overall, oil prices will lack upward momentum and show a weakening trend in the near term due to supply - side pressure, the limited impact of potential interest rate cuts, and the possible cooling of geopolitical risks [66].