摩根士丹利全球宏观论坛：经济与市场 -季展望-Morgan Stanley Global Macro Forum：The Economy and Markets – Fall Outlook

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Equal-weight (EW) rating for global equities, Overweight (OW) for US equities, and Underweight (UW) for 'Other' fixed income [72]. Core Insights - The economic outlook suggests a transition from a rolling recession to a rolling recovery, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate in September, followed by quarterly cuts to a terminal rate of 2.75-3.0% by the end of 2026 [72]. - US equities are expected to perform well, supported by a weak jobs report indicating a shift to early cycle conditions [72]. - The report anticipates lower Treasury yields and a steeper yield curve, with a focus on 3s30s curve steepeners and long duration in 5-year US Treasuries [72]. - A bearish outlook on the US dollar is maintained, driven by lower market rates and persistent inflation above target, which could erode real yields [72]. - The credit outlook highlights that investment-grade (IG) fixed income offers carry, momentum, and value, but lower yields pose a significant risk [72]. - The report emphasizes a preference for US equities over the rest of the world (RoW) while remaining bearish on the USD [72]. Economic Outlook - The median company has been in a recession for three years, indicating that the rolling recession is well advanced and likely troughed in April [6]. - The rebound in earnings revisions breadth is seen as convincing evidence that the recession's trough is behind us [8]. - Lagging labor data are confirming that the recession is behind us, although weaker labor data may be needed to prompt aggressive Fed cuts [11][13]. Interest Rates and Treasury Yields - Risks are increasingly skewed towards much lower rates, with US Treasury yields reflecting market-implied trough fed funds rates [19]. - The report indicates that lower front-end US Treasury yields have been the main driver of the steeper yield curve this year [23]. - The strategy remains committed to long duration with 5-year US Treasuries and 3s30s curve steepeners [28]. Currency Strategy - The report is more bearish on the USD than consensus, predicting EUR/USD to reach 1.20 this year and 1.25 by mid-2026 [34]. - Factors contributing to USD weakness include the end of US GDP outperformance versus the rest of the world, further declines in US yields, and large external deficits [36][37]. Credit Market Insights - Corporates are facing better trends compared to sovereigns, which are experiencing greater supply headwinds [53]. - Credit flows are yield-driven, and significantly lower yields present a key risk [55]. - The report advises caution in credit markets, suggesting that going down in quality may not yield better returns compared to other assets [59]. Asset Allocation - The report maintains a preference for US equities over RoW, while also being Overweight in core fixed income and Underweight in 'Other' fixed income [72]. - The performance of risk asset markets has shown resilience despite new US tariffs, with fundamentals and technicals remaining supportive [67].