原油成品油早报-20250910

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices declined. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October and gradually increase production by 1.65 million barrels of oil per month until August 2026, worsening the fourth - quarter crude oil balance sheet. Brent and WTI crude oil calendar spreads weakened, while Dubai's near - month spread strengthened due to physical market factors. Refining margins in Europe and the US strengthened significantly, and gasoline and diesel cracks fluctuated upwards. Fundamentally, global oil inventories increased slightly. The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory increased by 2.415 million barrels, and the strategic reserve inventory increased by 509,000 barrels. US gasoline inventories decreased rapidly, diesel inventories increased slightly, and residue inventories decreased. European ARA port petroleum product inventories increased significantly, and Singapore's petroleum production inventories increased significantly. The crude oil balance sheet is expected to have a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. It is estimated that global refinery maintenance in October will exceed previous years, pressuring crude oil calendar spreads. The absolute price of crude oil is currently weak, and the fundamental situation is transitioning between peak and off - peak seasons. The medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. The absolute price center in the fourth quarter is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitics and sanctions on the supply reduction of Iran and Russia [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - Trump has asked the EU to impose tariffs on countries importing Russian crude oil [3] - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending September 5 was 1.25 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 1.869 million barrels and a previous value of 622,000 barrels [4] - Israel attacked a senior Hamas leader in Qatar with Trump's approval. Qatar condemned the attack as a violation of international law [4] - Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency are expected to reach an agreement at the Cairo talks [4] - Saudi Aramco will reduce the price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil for October shipments to Asia by $1 per barrel, with a premium of $2.20 per barrel over the regional benchmark crude oil [4] - OPEC+ has received updated oil compensation plans from member countries. Voluntary production - cut countries in OPEC+ need to compensate for an excess production of 4.8 million barrels per day by July next year [4] 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending August 29, US crude oil exports increased by 74,000 barrels per day to 3.884 million barrels per day [5] - In the week ending August 29, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 16,000 barrels to 13.423 million barrels per day [5] - Excluding strategic reserves, commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.415 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a 0.58% increase [5] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.282 million barrels per day, a 2.47% increase compared to the same period last year [5] - In the week ending August 29, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 509,000 barrels to 404.7 million barrels, a 0.13% increase [5] - In the week ending August 29, US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.742 million barrels per day, an increase of 508,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [5] - From August 22 - 29, the operating rate of major refineries and Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, and both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated weakly, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased month - on - month [5] 3.3 Weekly Price Data - Price Changes from September 3 - 9, 2025: - WTI crude oil price increased by $0.37, from $63.97 to $62.63 [3] - Brent crude oil price increased by $0.37, from $67.60 to $66.39 [3] - Dubai crude oil price increased by $0.47, from $70.03 to $69.50 [3] - SC price decreased by 7.70, from 493.20 to 482.80 [3] - Oman price increased by $1.77, from $69.63 to $69.14 [3] - Domestic gasoline price increased by 20.00, from 7890 to 7800 [3] - Domestic diesel price increased by 8.00, from 6470 to 6464 [3] - Japanese naphtha CFR price data for September 9 was not provided, with a change in the differential to Brent not clearly calculable due to the missing value [3] - Singapore fuel oil 380CST premium changed from - 1.45 to 0.25 [3] - The main contract price of SHFE FU decreased by 1, from 2840 to 2766 [3] - The main contract price of SHFE BU decreased by 20, from 3550 to 3420 [3] - HH natural gas price increased by 0.060, from 3.000 to 3.110 [3] - BFO price decreased by 0.57, from 67.52 to 65.66 [3]