广发期货《能源化工》日报-20250910

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Polyester Industry: The short - term supply - demand pattern of short - fiber is weak, with high supply and uncertain demand during the peak season. PTA's absolute price follows raw material fluctuations, and its basis and processing fee repair drivers are limited. The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol is strong in the near term and weak in the long term. The price of PX is expected to be supported at low levels, but the rebound space is limited [2]. - PVC and Caustic Soda Industry: The caustic soda spot price may remain firm in the short term, while the decline space of the futures price is limited. The PVC market is under pressure, with supply increasing and demand remaining weak, and it is expected to continue weak and volatile [5]. - Crude Oil Industry: Geopolitical events increase the risk premium of oil prices, but the loose supply - demand pattern restricts the increase. It is recommended to mainly wait and see on the single - side, and look for opportunities to expand spreads on the option side [9]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry: The supply - demand of pure benzene in September is expected to be loose, and its price is driven by oil prices. The short - term drive of styrene is weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in supply - demand in the future [14]. - Polyolefin Industry: The current core contradiction in the polyolefin market is not prominent. The market will present a pattern of "decreasing supply and increasing demand", with attention to the supply rhythm and seasonal demand [17]. - Urea Industry: The urea futures price is weak due to a loose supply - demand pattern and low market sentiment, with high supply and weak demand [21]. - Methanol Industry: The methanol supply is increasing, and the demand from traditional downstream is weak. The port is accumulating inventory, and attention should be paid to the inventory digestion rhythm [33]. Summary by Directory Polyester Industry - Raw Material Prices: On September 9, Brent crude oil (November) was $66.02/barrel, up 0.6%; CFR China PX was $836/ton, up 0.4% [2]. - Product Prices and Cash Flows: POY150/48 price was 6805 yuan/ton, down 0.3%; its cash flow was 144 yuan/ton, down 3.7% [2]. - Industry Operating Rates: The comprehensive operating rate of polyester was 91.3%, up 1.0%; the operating rate of PTA was 70.4%, up 3.4% [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Product Prices: On September 9, the market price of PVC in East China was 4650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2718.8 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - Industry Operating Rates: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry was 86.7%, up 1.5%; the total operating rate of PVC was 76.2%, up 3.9% [5]. - Inventory: On September 4, the inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories was 170,000 tons, down 7.8%; the total social inventory of PVC was 533,000 tons, up 2.1% [5]. Crude Oil Industry - Prices and Spreads: On September 10, Brent crude oil was $66.70/barrel, up 0.47%; the spread between Brent M1 - M3 was $0.55/barrel, up 3.77% [9]. - Driving Factors: Geopolitical events such as the Israeli air - strike on Doha and Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy infrastructure support oil prices, while the loose supply - demand pattern restricts the increase [9]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Raw Material Prices: On September 9, CFR China pure benzene was $733/ton, down 0.1%; the price of pure benzene in East China was 5900 yuan/ton, down 0.2% [13]. - Product Prices and Spreads: The spot price of styrene in East China was 7110 yuan/ton, down 0.4%; the spread between EB - BZ spot was 1210 yuan/ton, down 1.6% [14]. - Industry Operating Rates: The operating rate of Asian pure benzene was 77.9%, unchanged; the operating rate of styrene was 79.7%, up 2.0% [14]. Polyolefin Industry - Product Prices: On September 9, the closing price of L2601 was 7229 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; the closing price of PP2601 was 6949 yuan/ton, down 0.27% [17]. - Inventory and Operating Rates: The inventory of PE decreased last week, while that of PP increased. The operating rate of PP devices was 80.2%, up 2.6% [17]. Urea Industry - Prices and Spreads: On September 9, the price of the main urea contract was 2398 yuan/ton, down 0.42%; the spread between UR - MA main contracts was - 756 yuan/ton, down 2.38% [21]. - Supply and Demand: The daily output of urea is relatively high, and demand from agriculture, industry, and exports is weak [21]. - Inventory: The factory inventory of urea was 1095,000 tons, up 0.85%; the port inventory was 620,900 tons, up 3.48% [21]. Methanol Industry - Prices and Spreads: On September 9, the closing price of MA2601 was 2398 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spread between MA91 was - 151 yuan, up 9 yuan [33]. - Inventory: The enterprise inventory of methanol was 341,083 tons, up 1 ton; the port inventory was 1428,000 tons, up 13 tons [33]. - Operating Rates: The operating rate of upstream domestic enterprises was 74.21%, up 2%; the operating rate of downstream external - procurement MTO devices was 78.81%, up 0.2% [33].