广发期货《特殊商品》日报-20250910

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - Glass and Soda Ash: The glass and soda ash market continues to be weak. For soda ash, the supply is high after the traditional summer inspection season, and the demand remains at a rigid level. It is recommended to short at high levels. For glass, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Short - term observation is advised, and mid - term attention should be paid to the actual demand in the peak season [1]. - Log: The log fundamentals are good, with low inventory, continuous destocking, and strong demand. As the seasonal peak season is approaching, the price has strong support at the bottom. It is recommended to go long at low levels [2]. - Polysilicon: In the short term, the market is more focused on the expectation of policy implementation in September, and the price is easy to rise and hard to fall. The supply reduction in September is not obvious, and there may be a slight inventory build - up. The price is more affected by policy expectations and has high volatility risk [3]. - Industrial Silicon: The cost of industrial silicon is expected to rise, and there are signs of capacity clearance. The supply - demand relationship was in a tight balance in August. It is recommended to go long at low levels, with the price fluctuating between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [4]. - Natural Rubber: The supply is affected by seasonal climate, with strong upward pressure on raw material prices and inventory destocking. The demand is expected to improve as enterprises resume production, but the increase in production may be limited. The price of the 01 contract is expected to be in the range of 15000 - 16500 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - Prices and Spreads: Glass prices in North China, Central China, and some futures contracts increased, while soda ash prices were mostly stable. The 05 basis of glass decreased, and the 05 basis of soda ash increased [1]. - Supply: Soda ash production increased, with the weekly output reaching 751,700 tons. The melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [1]. - Inventory: Glass factory inventory increased slightly, soda ash factory inventory decreased, and the inventory in the delivery warehouse increased. The inventory days of soda ash in glass factories decreased [1]. - Real Estate Data: New construction area improved slightly, while construction area, completion area, and sales area declined [1]. Log - Prices and Spreads: Log futures prices declined slightly. The prices of some spot logs remained stable, and the CFR price of some logs decreased [2]. - Supply and Demand: The arrival volume at 12 ports in China decreased last week but is expected to increase this week. The inventory continued to decline, and the daily average outbound volume remained above 60,000 cubic meters [2]. Polysilicon - Prices and Spreads: The average price of N - type polysilicon decreased slightly, and the futures price of the main contract decreased by 3.93%. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [3]. - Fundamentals: Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 3.53%, and polysilicon production decreased by 2.58%. Monthly polysilicon production, import volume, and silicon wafer export volume increased [3]. - Inventory: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.94%, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 6.65% [3]. Industrial Silicon - Prices and Spreads: The spot prices of industrial silicon remained stable, and some basis and monthly spreads changed significantly [4]. - Fundamentals: National and regional industrial silicon production increased, and the national and regional operating rates also increased. The production of organic silicon DMC and polysilicon increased, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased [4]. - Inventory: The inventory in Xinjiang increased slightly, while the inventory in Yunnan and Sichuan factories and the social inventory decreased [4]. Natural Rubber - Prices and Spreads: The prices of some natural rubber products decreased, and some monthly spreads changed [5]. - Fundamentals: The production of natural rubber in Thailand and Indonesia increased in July, while the production in India and China decreased. The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased, and the domestic tire production decreased [5]. - Inventory: The bonded area inventory decreased, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE increased [5].