大越期货PVC期货早报-20250910

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The PVC2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 4816 - 4878. The main influencing factors include cost, supply, demand, and inventory. The cost is weakening, the supply pressure is increasing, the demand may remain sluggish, and the inventory is at a high level. [9][14] - The bullish factors are supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The bearish factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals: In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 77.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 327,885 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 134,060 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. The downstream overall start - up rate was 43.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.899 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The cost of calcium carbide and ethylene methods is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening, and the production scheduling may be under pressure. The fundamentals are bearish. [7][8] - Basis: On September 9, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,710 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 137 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is bearish. [11] - Inventory: The in - plant inventory was 315,801 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. The calcium carbide plant inventory was 251,301 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.77%. The ethylene plant inventory was 64,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%. The social inventory was 533,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. The inventory days of production enterprises in the warehouse were 5.25 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.96%. It is bearish. [11] - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. It is bearish. [11] - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position increases. It is bearish. [11] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The futures prices of different contracts and varieties decreased to varying degrees. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 0.88%, the 02 contract decreased by 0.87%, etc. The downstream start - up rates of different products also changed. The profile start - up rate decreased by 9.88%, the pipe start - up rate decreased by 0.39%, etc. The profit of calcium carbide method was - 420.96 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 5.45% month - on - month, and the profit of ethylene method was - 670.97 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 6.85% month - on - month. [17] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend: It shows the historical data of the basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price from 2022 to 2025. [20] - Trend and Volume: It presents the trading volume, opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and the position changes of the top 5/20 seats of the main contract from August to September 2025. [23] - Spread Analysis: It shows the historical data of the spread between different contracts (such as 1 - 9 spread, 5 - 9 spread) from 2024 to 2025. [26] 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - Calcium Carbide Method - Related: It includes the price, cost, profit, start - up rate, inventory, and production of raw materials such as blue charcoal, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda from 2016 - 2025. For example, the price of blue charcoal medium material in Shenmu, the mainstream price of Shaanxi calcium carbide, etc. [29][32][34][36] - Supply Trend: The capacity utilization rate of calcium carbide method and ethylene method, profit, daily and weekly production, and weekly maintenance volume from 2018 - 2025 are presented. For example, the capacity utilization rate of calcium carbide method this week was 76.73%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67%. [39][41] - Demand Trend: It shows the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, apparent consumption, downstream start - up rate, and production - sales rate of PVC from 2019 - 2025. For example, the downstream average start - up rate of PVC, the start - up rate of profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin. [44][46] - Inventory: The exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide plant inventory, ethylene plant inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 - 2025 are shown. For example, the calcium carbide plant inventory was 251,301 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.77%. [55] - Ethylene Method - Related: The import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and related price spreads from 2018 - 2025 are presented. For example, the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane in different months. [57] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import volume of PVC from July 2024 to August 2025. For example, the production in August 2025 was 1.94 million tons, and the demand was 1.81 million tons. [60]