Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market currently faces a situation of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, making it difficult to change the downward trend [13]. - The cost - end situation varies: the cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica is high, resulting in losses; the cost of the salt - lake end is significantly lower, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10]. - The future price of lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71300 - 74500 [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - Supply - side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19419 tons, a 2.04% increase from the previous week, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, the production was 85240 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 86730 tons, a 1.75% increase. The import volume in August was 17000 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19500 tons, a 14.71% increase [8][9]. - Demand - side: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 94756 tons, a 0.28% increase from the previous week, while the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17644 tons, a 1.05% decrease from the previous week. Next - month demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - Cost - side: The CIF price of 6% concentrate increased on a daily basis but is lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 75759 yuan/ton, a 0.23% increase from the previous day, with a production loss of 2239 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica is 78868 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a production loss of 7348 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production motivation. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9][10]. - Other aspects: The basis on September 9th shows that the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74600 yuan/ton, with a basis of 1700 yuan/ton for the 11 - contract, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The smelter inventory is 39475 tons, an 8.90% decrease from the previous week, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory is 55207 tons, a 4.56% increase from the previous week, higher than the historical average. The overall inventory is 140092 tons, a 0.73% decrease from the previous week, higher than the historical average. The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closes below the MA20. The net position of the main contract is short, with a decrease in short positions [10]. - Likely factors: Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene. Negative factors are the continuous high - level supply from ore and salt - lake ends with limited downward space, and the lack of willingness of the power battery end to receive goods [11][12]. 2. Market Overview of Lithium Carbonate - Price and basis: Most of the disk prices of lithium - related products decreased compared to the previous day, with a decline range of about 1.98% - 3.24%. The basis of most products increased compared to the previous day [15]. - Upstream prices: The price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 0.34%, while the prices of other upstream products such as lithium mica concentrate, phosphoric acid iron, and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged [15]. - Cathode materials and lithium - battery prices: The prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials increased slightly, while the prices of lithium - ion batteries remained unchanged [15]. 3. Supply - Lithium Ore - Price: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over the years. - Production: The production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica has shown different trends in different years. - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has increased significantly, with a large increase in the import volume from Australia [24]. - Self - sufficiency rate: The self - sufficiency rates of lithium spodumene, lithium ore, and lithium mica have shown different trends over the years. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore has fluctuated over the years [24]. - Supply - demand balance: There are fluctuations in the supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore, with some months showing a surplus and some showing a deficit [27]. 4. Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling materials) has shown different trends over the years. The monthly production of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate has also changed [30]. - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) has fluctuated [30]. - Supply - demand balance: There are fluctuations in the monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate, with some months showing a surplus and some showing a deficit [38]. 5. Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity utilization rate: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide and the monthly start - up rate of different sources (causticization and smelting) have shown different trends over the years [41]. - Production: The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources and the total production have changed over the years. The export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide has also shown an upward trend [41]. - Supply - demand balance: There are fluctuations in the monthly supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide, with some months showing a surplus and some showing a deficit [44]. 6. Cost - profit of Lithium Compounds - Cost and profit of different raw materials: The cost and profit of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and recycling materials for lithium - compound production have shown different trends over the years. The processing cost composition and profit of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide also vary [47][49][52]. 7. Inventory - Lithium carbonate inventory: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate in different sectors (smelter, downstream, etc.) has shown different trends over the years [54]. - Lithium hydroxide inventory: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in different sectors (downstream, smelter, etc.) has also changed [54]. 8. Demand - Lithium Battery - Price: The price of lithium batteries has fluctuated over the years. - Production: The monthly production of power cells, including power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, and energy - storage cells, has shown different trends. - Loading volume: The monthly loading volume of power batteries, including lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, has changed. - Export: The export volume of lithium batteries has shown an upward trend [58]. - Inventory: The inventory of lithium - battery cells, including power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, and energy - storage batteries, has fluctuated [60]. - Energy - storage winning bids: The winning bids for energy - storage systems, EPC, and other equipment have shown different trends [60]. 9. Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price: The price of ternary precursors has fluctuated over the years. - Cost and profit: The cost and profit of ternary precursors have also changed. - Capacity utilization rate: The capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors has shown different trends over the years. - Production and supply - demand balance: The monthly production of ternary precursors has increased, and there are fluctuations in the supply - demand balance, with some months showing a surplus and some showing a deficit [63][66]. 10. Demand - Ternary Material - Price: The price of ternary materials has fluctuated over the years. - Cost and profit: The cost - profit trend of ternary materials has also changed. - Start - up rate: The weekly start - up rate of ternary materials has shown different trends over the years. - Production, import, export, and inventory: The production, import, export, and inventory of ternary materials have all changed [69][71]. 11. Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/ Lithium Iron Phosphate - Price: The price of phosphoric acid iron and lithium iron phosphate has fluctuated over the years. - Cost and profit: The cost - profit trend of lithium iron phosphate has also changed. - Capacity and production: The capacity and monthly production of phosphoric acid iron and lithium iron phosphate have shown different trends over the years. - Export and inventory: The monthly export volume and weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate have also changed [73][76][78]. 12. Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, sales, and export: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have shown an upward trend over the years. - Sales penetration rate: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has also increased [81][82]. - Retail - wholesale ratio and inventory index: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles and the inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers have shown different trends over the years [85].
大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250910
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-10 08:18