大越期货菜粕早报-20250910

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2520 - 2580. It is currently experiencing a short - term shock - strengthening pattern due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season with low inventory supporting the market, but after the National Day, the demand will gradually enter the off - season and there are still variables in Sino - Canadian trade negotiations [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2520 - 2580 range. The market is influenced by the soybean meal trend, technical consolidation, and awaits the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. The short - term demand is in the peak season with low inventory, but there are concerns about post - National Day demand and Sino - Canadian trade [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market. The demand side maintains a good outlook. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is being levied. The final ruling is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other, there is still a possibility of an escalation in geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Multi - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and low inventory pressure on oil mills. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports with a small probability of reconciliation. The current main logic is the focus on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and Volume: From September 1st to 9th, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 3053 - 3065 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 7.84 - 17.49 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was mainly around 2560 - 2600 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was relatively small, from 0 - 0.23 million tons. The price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 453 - 504 yuan/ton [13]. - Futures and Spot Prices: From September 1st to 9th, the price of the main rapeseed meal futures contract 2601 fluctuated between 2500 - 2550, and the far - month contract 2605 was between 2388 - 2408. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was stable at 2560 - 2600 [15]. - Warehouse Receipts: From August 28th to September 9th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts first decreased and then increased. For example, on August 28th, it was 7314 (- 396), and on September 9th, it was 11343 (+940) [16]. - Aquatic Product Prices: Aquatic fish prices have rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [34]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions have decreased, and funds have flowed out, which is a bearish signal [9].