大越期货豆粕早报-20250910

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The US soybean market is affected by the expectation of a bumper harvest and uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations. Before the September USDA report, it oscillates above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on Sino - US tariff negotiations and the growth weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal market may enter a moderately strong oscillation pattern in the short term, supported by good demand recently, but restricted by a high level of imported soybeans arriving at ports in August and spot price discounts [8]. - The domestic soybean market is influenced by the US soybean market and technical oscillations. It is affected by the peak arrival of imported soybeans and the expectation of a new - season domestic soybean harvest, but the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price floor [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The short - term progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is positive for US soybeans. With relatively good weather in US soybean - producing areas recently, the US soybean futures market has rebounded under the influence of relatively positive USDA report data and is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans at domestic ports remained high in August, and the inventory of soybean meal at oil mills entered a relatively high level. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August USDA report and the rise of rapeseed meal, soybean meal is expected to oscillate moderately strongly in the short term [12]. - The reduction in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to a low expectation of pig restocking. However, the recent recovery in soybean meal demand supports the price, and due to the uncertainty in Sino - US trade negotiations, soybean meal has returned to an interval oscillation pattern [12]. - The inventory of soybean meal at domestic oil mills continues to rise. With the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war, soybean meal will oscillate moderately strongly in the short term, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and further developments in the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of soybean meal at domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival of imported soybeans at domestic ports in September, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the price floor of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the new - season domestic soybean harvest suppressing the price [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From September 1st to 9th, the transaction average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3053 - 3065 yuan/ton, and the transaction volume ranged from 7.84 - 17.49 million tons. The transaction average price of rapeseed meal was mainly around 2560 - 2600 yuan/ton, and the transaction volume was relatively small [15]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data: From September 1st to 9th, the futures prices of soybean No. 1 fluctuated between 3961 - 3977 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Jiamusi remained at 4200 yuan/ton. The futures prices of soybean meal fluctuated between 3048 - 3081 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Jiangsu was mainly around 2970 - 2990 yuan/ton [17]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data: From August 28th to September 9th, the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1 decreased from 11545 to 7817, the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 2 increased from 0 to 300, and the warehouse receipts of soybean meal increased from 10925 to 25915 [19]. - Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 [31][32]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 - 2025 are presented, including sowing progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, harvest rate, etc. [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from February to August 2025 show changes in harvest area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing volume, and the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [41]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in soybean meal futures have increased, and capital has flowed in [8]. - The main long positions in soybean futures have decreased, and capital has flowed out [10].