大越期货原油早报-20250910

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overnight Israeli air - strike on the Hamas base in Qatar has increased the risk sentiment of geopolitical concerns, and the situation in Gaza is unlikely to improve. The EIA's short - term energy outlook remains pessimistic about future oil prices, and the API inventory has increased more than expected, putting pressure on prices. In the short term, continue to monitor geopolitical changes. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate. It is predicted to operate in the range of 480 - 490 in the short term, and long - term long positions should be held [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: Israel's air - strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar has escalated the military operation in the Middle East. The EIA predicts that global oil prices will drop significantly in the coming months as OPEC+ production increases, causing a large increase in oil inventories. The U.S. economic employment figures may be 911,000 less than previously estimated. Overall, it is neutral [3]. - Basis: On September 9, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $70.05 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $69.38 per barrel. The basis was $37.67 per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - Inventory: The U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending September 5 increased by 1.25 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.869 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the week ending August 29 increased by 2.415 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 2.031 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory for the week ending August 29 increased by 1.59 million barrels. As of September 9, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.721 million barrels, which is bearish [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is below the moving average, which is neutral [3]. - Main Position: As of September 2, the main position of WTI crude oil is long, with a decrease in long positions; the main position of Brent crude oil is long, with an increase in long positions, which is neutral [3]. - Expectation: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate. In the short term, it will operate in the range of 480 - 490, and long - term long positions should be held [3]. 2. Recent News - Israeli Attack in Qatar: On September 9, there were several explosions in Doha, Qatar. Israel's military and security agencies admitted responsibility for the attack on Hamas leaders. The targeted Hamas leaders were said to be responsible for the 2023 attack on Israel and were planning new operations. The attack occurred during a meeting of Hamas leaders discussing a U.S. - proposed cease - fire in Gaza [5]. - U.S. Employment Data Revision: The U.S. government stated that the total number of employment positions in the economy as of March may be 911,000 less than previously estimated, indicating that employment growth had stagnated before Trump's tariff policies. The data revision means that the average monthly increase in non - farm employment is about 71,000 instead of 147,000. The financial market's reaction was limited, and the Fed is expected to resume interest - rate cuts next Wednesday [5]. - Iran - IAEA Agreement: On the evening of September 9, Iran's foreign minister and the IAEA director - general announced a new cooperation agreement in Cairo, aiming to build a new cooperation framework between Iran and the IAEA, which is the first meeting since the June bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities by Israel and the U.S. [5]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish Factors: None mentioned in the report. - Bearish Factors: The possibility of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and the continuous tension in U.S. trade relations with other economies [6]. - Market Drivers: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, while the risk of trade tariffs is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season [6]. - Risk Points: Disunity within OPEC+ leading to increased production, and the escalation of war risks [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil have all increased, with increases of $0.37, $0.37, $7.20, and $0.34 respectively, and the increase rates are 0.56%, 0.59%, 1.51%, and 0.49% respectively [7]. - Spot Market: The spot prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil have all increased, with increases of $0.22, $0.37, $0.67, $0.39, and $0.56 respectively, and the increase rates are 0.33%, 0.59%, 0.97%, 0.61%, and 0.81% respectively [9]. - Inventory Data: The API inventory for the week ending September 5 increased by 1.25 million barrels, and the EIA inventory for the week ending August 29 increased by 2.415 million barrels [3]. 5. Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of September 2, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds was 102,428, a decrease of 7,044 [16]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of September 2, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds was 251,054, an increase of 44,511 [18].