Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [2][3] 2. Core Views - Corn: In the domestic market, as the new - season corn in the Northeast is approaching the listing period, reserve - rotation corn is continuously released, and traders' confidence to hold prices has weakened. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventories, and market trading is relatively light. However, the early listing of new - season corn in some areas and the slightly higher opening price have a positive impact on market sentiment. The corn futures price rebounded from a low level but has recently declined due to profit - taking by bulls. It is advisable to wait and see [2] - Corn Starch: Some enterprises have added maintenance due to insufficient raw - material supply, and the industry is in a loss state with a low operating rate. Although supply pressure is weak and demand has slightly improved, inventory pressure has decreased, but the overall inventory is still high. The market is being squeezed by substitute starches. Affected by the decline in corn prices and its own weak demand, the starch futures price has weakened and is weaker than that of corn [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2197 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2488 yuan/ton. Corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 70 yuan/ton, and corn starch monthly spread (11 - 1) is - 14 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The futures positions of active contracts for yellow corn and corn starch are 860426 hands and 199400 hands respectively, with a change of - 21204 hands and 6510 hands. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn and corn starch are - 56652 hands and - 45015 hands respectively, with an increase of 2315 hands for corn starch. The registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn and corn starch are 51959 hands and 9406 hands respectively, with a decrease of 4305 hands for yellow corn [2] Outer Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 419.5 cents/bushel, down 2 cents. CBOT corn total positions (weekly) are 1454514 contracts, down 2187 contracts. The non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn are 18485 contracts, down 52455 contracts [2] Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2367.45 yuan/ton, and the factory quotes for corn starch in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2660 yuan/ton, 2900 yuan/ton, and 2830 yuan/ton respectively. The import cost - included price of imported corn is 1926.58 yuan/ton, and the international freight is 0 dollars/ton. The basis of the corn starch main contract is 150 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; the basis of the corn main contract is 170.45 yuan/ton. The spread between Shandong starch and corn (weekly) is 360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The predicted sowing areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China are 398.93 million hectares, 131 million hectares, 53 million hectares, and 295 million hectares respectively; the predicted yields are 35.89 million tons, 22.6 million tons, 7.5 million tons, and 44.3 million tons respectively. The corn inventory in southern ports (weekly) is 73.5 million tons, down 3.5 million tons; the deep - processing corn inventory (weekly) is 271.1 million tons, down 23.1 million tons. The corn inventory in northern ports (weekly) is 156 million tons, down 19 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons, down 10 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 15940 tons, up 1440 tons. The monthly output of feed is 2827.3 million tons, down 110.4 million tons. The corn starch processing profit in Shandong is - 85 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan; in Hebei is - 63 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; in Jilin is - 136 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The sample feed corn inventory days (weekly) are 27.63 days, down 0.5 days. The deep - processing corn consumption (weekly) is 114.3 million tons, up 0.28 million tons. The alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 46.21%, up 3.34%; the starch enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 47.14%, down 0.56% [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.69%, up 0.15%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.79%, up 0.14%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options for corn is 8.89%, up 0.28% [2] Industry News - As of September 6, the harvest progress of Brazil's second - season corn in the 2024/25 season is 98.3%. On September 9, Ukraine planned to increase the winter grain sowing area in 2026. As of September 7, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn is 68%, and the market is concerned about the USDA monthly report [2] Key Focus - Pay attention to mysteel's weekly corn consumption, starch enterprise operating rate, and inventory on Thursday and Friday, and the USDA monthly supply - demand report at 0:00 on the 13th [3]
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250910
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-10 09:12