Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Sugar: Brazil's mid - southern region's sugar production in the first half of August 2025 increased by 15.96% year - on - year, and sugar exports in the first week of September remained high. In China, spot prices continued to weaken, and with high imports in July and the expected arrival of beet sugar, there is supply pressure. The lack of rebound in raw sugar means the domestic market lacks upward drivers [3]. - Cotton: The low inventory before the new cotton harvest supports cotton prices, and there are many pre - sales of new cotton. The basis is strong, limiting the downward adjustment space. However, there is hedging pressure from ginneries. After the new cotton is listed, prices may fall due to a potentially high - yield situation [14]. - Jujube: New - season jujube production may decline significantly compared to last year but less so compared to normal years. There is potential market speculation before harvest. Despite the approaching Mid - Autumn Festival, downstream sales are average. If the decline in production does not increase, prices may fall due to high old - jujube inventories [20]. - Apple: Seasonal fruits limit apple sales. New - season apples, like early Fuji, have small fruit sizes. As the new season approaches, expectations of reduced production and lower high - quality fruit rates affect the market [24]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - Production and Supply: Brazil's mid - southern region produced 361500 tons of sugar in the first half of August 2025, a 15.96% year - on - year increase. Brazil exported 76900 tons of sugar in the first week of September. In China, the import volume in July was 740000 tons, and there is an expected arrival of beet sugar [3]. - Prices: On September 10, 2025, domestic spot prices in Guangxi were between 5830 - 5940 yuan/ton, but the transaction price dropped to 5728 yuan/ton. Futures prices for different contracts had various daily and weekly changes, e.g., SR01 closed at 5535 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.31% and a weekly decrease of 0.49% [3][4]. - Basis and Import: Basis data for different locations and contracts showed various daily and weekly changes. Import prices from Brazil and Thailand and the corresponding price differences with domestic prices also had changes. For example, the Brazilian import quota - within price was 4379 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 43 yuan and a weekly decrease of 99 yuan [9][12]. Cotton - Prices: On September 10, 2025, cotton 01 closed at 13855 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 20 yuan (0.14%). Cotton and cotton yarn price differences, such as the cotton basis at 1500 yuan, had daily and weekly changes [15][16]. Jujube - Production and Market: New - season jujube production may decline. Downstream sales are average during the approaching Mid - Autumn Festival. Price trends depend on production decline and old - jujube inventories [20]. Apple - Market Situation: Seasonal fruits limit apple sales. New - season apples, like early Fuji, have small fruit sizes. Futures and spot prices had various daily and weekly changes on September 10, 2025. For example, AP01 closed at 8130 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.21% and a weekly decrease of 0.87% [24][25].
软商品日报-20250910
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2025-09-10 11:58