Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. The supply in Yunnan is gradually increasing, and the raw material purchase price is firm. The raw material output in Hainan is seasonally increasing, but the factories are not willing to replenish high - priced raw materials, and the purchase price of latex is lowered. Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, and the de - stocking rate has increased month - on - month. However, as tire factories become more risk - averse, the de - stocking rate of general trade inventory may narrow month - on - month. In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate will increase this week as the production of maintenance enterprises resumes, but the increase in the start - up rate may be limited due to the general shipment of some enterprises and production control plans within the month. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,800 - 16,500 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,550 - 13,200 in the short term [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,980 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 35 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,715 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the 10 - 11 spread was - 45 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,265 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 150,595 lots, down 1,149 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 71,970 lots, up 1,042 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 31,120 lots, up 2,955 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 15,067 lots, down 1,107 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 155,250 tons, down 1,400 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 47,678 tons, up 604 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,865 US dollars/ton, down 25 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,865 US dollars/ton, down 25 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,950 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,300 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 690 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 940 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,389 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 654 yuan/ton, up 274 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 61.1 Thai baht/kg, down 1 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 58.45 Thai baht/kg, down 0.22 Thai baht. The market reference price of latex of Thai raw rubber was 56 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 211.2 US dollars/ton, down 16.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 14.4 US dollars/ton, down 21.4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 121,900 tons, up 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 259,500 tons, down 21,300 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 59.78%, down 4.06 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 67.47%, down 5.3 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 38.88 days, down 0.34 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 45.85 days, down 0.29 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 14.75%, up 0.26 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.12%, up 0.26 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.1%, down 0.3 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.1%, down 0.3 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From September 7th to 13th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in southern Thailand and south - western Cambodia, etc., and the rainfall in most other areas was moderate, with a slight increase in the impact on tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in central Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was moderate, with an enhanced impact on tapping. As of September 7th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 592,300 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.66%. The bonded area inventory was 72,300 tons, a decline of 1.24%; the general trade inventory was 520,000 tons, a decline of 1.72%. The warehousing rate of the bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 0.95 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 1.79 percentage points; the warehousing rate of the general trade warehouses decreased by 0.6 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 0.39 percentage points. As of September 4th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.92%, a decrease of 4.05 percentage points month - on - month and 12.98 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.74%, a decrease of 4.15 percentage points month - on - month and 1.12 percentage points year - on - year. During the period, some enterprises in Dongying had a 3 - 4 - day maintenance plan, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate [2].
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250910
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-10 09:06