瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20250910

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market is under overall pressure due to a bearish fundamental situation, but the downward space is limited as the price is at a historically low level. The V2601 is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support around 4800 [3]. - This week, the production volume and capacity utilization rate of PVC are expected to fluctuate slightly on a week - on - week basis. In the medium to long term, the planned commissioning of 900,000 - ton devices by Bohua, Gansu Yaowang, and Qingdao Gulf in September will increase the industry's supply pressure [3]. - Domestic product orders are insufficient, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase at low prices. The weak terminal real - estate market continues to drag down domestic demand, and the Indian PVC anti - dumping policy is expected to be implemented soon, causing the export market to remain in a wait - and - see mode. The considerable profit of caustic soda weakens the cost support of calcium carbide and ethylene [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4857 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10; the trading volume is 709,598 lots, a decrease of 48,778; the open interest is 1,266,528 lots, a decrease of 25,558. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 150,419 lots, an increase of 15,294 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4985 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4673.46 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.92. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4920 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4771.88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 670 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The FOB price in Northwest Europe is 690 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC is - 207 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton (unchanged), 2606.67 yuan/ton in North China, an increase of 16.67, and 2428 yuan/ton in Northwest China (unchanged). The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 575 yuan/ton (unchanged). The weekly average price of VCM CFR in the Far East is 503 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and 539 US dollars/ton in Southeast Asia (unchanged). The weekly average price of EDC CFR in the Far East is 189 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and 201 US dollars/ton in Southeast Asia (unchanged) [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 77.13%, an increase of 1.11%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 76.73%, a decrease of 0.52%, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 78.14%, an increase of 5.19%. The total social inventory of PVC is 533,000 tons, an increase of 11,100 tons. The total inventory in the East China region is 478,100 tons, an increase of 14,500 tons, and the total inventory in the South China region is 54,900 tons, a decrease of 3400 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.34, a decrease of 0.26. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 35.206 million square meters, an increase of 4.84168 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 6.38731 billion square meters, an increase of 5.40957 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 281.0593 billion yuan, an increase of 36.3043 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 8.48%, an increase of 0.2; the 40 - day historical volatility is 20.25%, a decrease of 0.05. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options of PVC is 15.15%, a decrease of 0.48 [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On September 10, the spot price of East China PVCSG5 remained stable compared with the previous day, ranging from 4620 to 4730 yuan/ton [3]. - From August 30 to September 5, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.11% [3]. - As of September 4, the social inventory of PVC increased by 2.44% week - on - week to 918,200 tons. The V2601 fluctuated slightly and closed at 4857 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the restart of previously shut - down devices drove a 1.46% week - on - week increase in PVC production last week to 660,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 1.11% week - on - week to 77.13%. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 0.9% week - on - week to 43.5%, among which the operating rate of pipes decreased by 0.13 to 33.48% week - on - week, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 4.21% week - on - week to 38.39%. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of PVC increased by 2.44% week - on - week to 918,200 tons [3].