瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250910

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - This week, the inventory level of inland methanol enterprises decreased due to pre - National Day holiday stocking by mid - and downstream enterprises and increased external procurement by some olefin enterprises in Inner Mongolia. However, domestic methanol ports continued to accumulate inventory significantly, and it is expected that the port inventory will continue the accumulation trend next week, with the specific accumulation amplitude depending on the unloading speed of foreign vessels. - With the profit recovery, the operating rate of some olefin enterprises in East China increased. The operating rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants increased slightly last week. After the offset of the expected restart of Shenhua Xinjiang in the middle of the month and the short - term shutdown of Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant, the short - term industry operating rate may decline slightly. - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2360 - 2440 in the short term [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2407 yuan/ton, with a change of 9 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was - 2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton. - The position of the main contract was 755,966 lots, a decrease of 12,659 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 108,488 lots. - The number of warehouse receipts was 14,519, an increase of 983 [2]. b. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2285 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2127.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 157.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 122 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton. - The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 262 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 323 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 297 euros/ton, an increase of 2 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 61 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.1 US dollars/million British thermal units, unchanged [2]. d. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 100.23 tons, an increase of 11.33 tons; the inventory in South China ports was 42.54 tons, an increase of 1.51 tons. - The import profit of methanol was 17.36 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly import volume was 1.1027 million tons, a decrease of 0.1175 million tons. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 341,100 tons, an increase of 7700 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 84.84%, unchanged [2]. e. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 37.73%, a decrease of 4.31 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 4.83%, a decrease of 2.19 percentage points. - The operating rate of acetic acid was 84.24%, a decrease of 1 percentage point; the operating rate of MTBE was 62.22%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points. - The operating rate of olefins was 84.72%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefin was - 1073 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton [2]. f. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 13.77%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 17.96%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.3%, a decrease of 1.86 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 15.3%, a decrease of 1.86 percentage points [2]. g. Industry News - As of September 10, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 342,600 tons, a decrease of 4500 tons compared with the previous period, a 1.31% decrease; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 250,700 tons, an increase of 9400 tons compared with the previous period, a 3.91% increase. - As of September 10, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.5503 million tons, an increase of 122,600 tons compared with the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 87,200 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 35,400 tons. - As of September 4, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 87.07%, a 0.62% increase compared with the previous period [2].