瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20250910

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - L2601 is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short - term. Technically, attention should be paid to the support around 7200 and the pressure around 7300. The total inventory pressure is not large and is expected to maintain a destocking trend. The supply pressure in the industry is difficult to improve. The cost side provides certain support to international oil prices [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene is 7226 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the 1 - month contract is 7226 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the 5 - month contract is 7237 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 9 - month contract is 7176 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan. The trading volume is 178,117 lots, an increase of 12,282 lots, and the open interest is 517,187 lots, a decrease of 790 lots. The 9 - 1 spread is - 50, up 29. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 345,595 lots, a decrease of 4219 lots; the short positions are 389,807 lots, an increase of 643 lots; the net long positions are - 44,212 lots, a decrease of 4862 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 7256.52 yuan/ton, down 6.09 yuan; in East China is 7335.95 yuan/ton, up 4.76 yuan. The basis is 27.52, up 15.91 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore is 64.23 US dollars/barrel, up 0.31 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 597.25 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia is 841 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate is 80.55%, up 1.86 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film is 50.48%, up 0.92 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes is 30.33%, up 0.16 percentage points; the operating rate of PE agricultural film is 20.18%, up 2.72 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 6.62%, up 0.21 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.41%, up 0.12 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.22%, down 0.38 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.23%, down 0.35 percentage points [2] Industry News - From August 29th to September 4th, China's polyethylene production was 632,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.37%. The capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 80.55%, a week - on - week increase of 1.87 percentage points. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products increased by 0.8% compared with the previous period. As of September 10th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 487,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.03%; as of September 5th, the inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses was 560,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04% [2]