瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20250910

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the HC2601 contract fluctuated widely. Tariff disturbances resurfaced, coal and coke were under pressure, and cost support weakened. Attention should be paid to the supply - demand data on Thursday. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward, and the red column turns green. Operationally, consider trading in the 3370 - 3310 range in the short term, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,342 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 106,885 lots, up 8,482 lots; the HC10 - 1 contract spread was 35 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 233 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 25,059 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,410 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou was 3,370 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Wuhan was 3,440 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin was 3,320 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The HC main contract basis was 68 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 798 yuan/wet ton, up 12 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel was 2,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 2,990 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 13,825.32 tons, up 62.30 tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory was 40.66 tons, up 0.95 tons; the sample steel mill coke inventory was 623.54 tons, up 13.42 tons; the Hebei billet inventory was 136.53 tons, up 8.17 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.38%, down 2.80 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.77%, down 4.23 percentage points. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output was 314.24 tons, down 10.50 tons; the sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate was 80.27%, down 2.68 percentage points. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 79.98 tons, up 0.30 tons; the 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory was 294.36 tons, up 8.58 tons. The domestic crude steel output was 7,966 tons, down 353 tons; the steel net export volume was 901.00 tons, down 38.00 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly automobile production was 259.11 million vehicles, down 20.30 million vehicles; the monthly automobile sales were 259.34 million vehicles, down 31.11 million vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner production was 2,059.65 million units, down 778.66 million units; the monthly household refrigerator production was 873.07 million units, down 31.68 million units; the monthly household washing machine production was 877.43 million units, down 73.36 million units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Bloomberg reporters asked that according to reports, US President Trump personally told European officials that in order to force Russian President Putin to negotiate with Ukraine, he was willing to significantly increase tariffs on India and China, but only if the EU did the same. In August 2025, the national industrial producer ex - factory price decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month, and the month - on - month change turned from a 0.2% decrease to flat. The industrial producer purchase price decreased by 4.0% year - on - year and was flat month - on - month [2]. 3.7 Key Focus - Pay attention to the weekly hot - rolled coil output, factory inventory, and social inventory on Thursday [2]