瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20250910

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Asian session dollar weakness boosts precious metals market, US non - farm employment significant downward revision and August non - farm cooling strengthen Fed's September rate - cut confidence, driving optimistic trading sentiment in precious metals market. Gold price upward momentum continues, but there may be short - term callback risk due to full pricing of rate - cut expectations, and trading strategy suggests range - band trading. Market will focus on US August CPI and tonight's PPI data. [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Shanghai gold main contract closing price is 833.42 yuan/gram, down 1.06; Shanghai silver main contract closing price is 9796 yuan/kilogram, down 50. Shanghai gold main contract position is 119424 hands, down 5457; Shanghai silver main contract position is 212530 hands, down 10481. Shanghai gold main top 20 net position is 173627 hands, down 3286; Shanghai silver main top 20 net position is 135520 hands, down 3908. Gold warehouse receipt quantity is 45951 kilograms, up 1536; silver warehouse receipt quantity is 1252170 kilograms, up 1831. [2] 现货市场 - Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network gold spot price is 828.01 yuan/gram, down 3.37; silver spot price is 9757 yuan/kilogram, down 73. Shanghai gold main contract basis is - 5.41 yuan/gram, down 2.31; Shanghai silver main contract basis is - 39 yuan/kilogram, down 23. [2] Supply and Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings are 979.68 tons, unchanged; silver ETF holdings are 15069.6 tons, down 67.77. Gold CFTC non - commercial net position is 249530 contracts, up 35219; silver CTFC non - commercial net position is 55923 contracts, up 9457. Quarterly total gold supply is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84; annual total silver supply is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4. Quarterly total gold demand is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83; annual global total silver demand is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4. [2] Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 9.32%, down 0.04; 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 10.43%, up 0.2. At - the - money call option implied volatility of gold is 21.98%, down 0.05; at - the - money put option implied volatility of gold is 21.98%, down 0.05. [2] Industry News - US government's preliminary benchmark revision shows non - farm employment down 911,000 in the year to March, monthly average less increase of nearly 76,000, which may lead to Fed rate cuts. US and South Korea are in deadlock over a $350 billion investment fund. Fed's September 25 - basis - point rate - cut probability is 93%, 50 - basis - point rate - cut probability is 7%. October cumulative 25 - basis - point rate - cut probability is 21.4%, cumulative 50 - basis - point rate - cut probability is 73.2%, cumulative 75 - basis - point rate - cut probability is 5.4%. Japan expects US to implement special measures on auto tariffs by the 16th. [2] Viewpoint Summary - Suggest trading in range - band. Shanghai gold 2510 contract focus range: 750 - 850 yuan/gram; Shanghai silver 2510 contract focus range: 9600 - 9800 yuan/kilogram. London gold price focus range: 3550 - 3650 US dollars/ounce, London silver price focus range: 40.5 - 41.5 US dollars/ounce. [2]