Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand, with a suggestion of lightly - position short - term long trades at low prices [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and gradually recovering demand, with a suggestion of lightly - position oscillating trades [2]. - The cast aluminum alloy market may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and slowly recovering demand, with a suggestion of lightly - position short - selling trades at high prices [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,790 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the main - second - continuous contract spread is 10 yuan, unchanged; the main contract position is 196,440 lots, up 2,246 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum is 7,105 lots, up 7,452 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.91, down 0.01 [2]. - The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,933 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the main - second - continuous contract spread is - 45 yuan, down 13 yuan; the main contract position is 276,136 lots, down 4,976 lots [2]. - The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 2,627.50 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 485,275 tons, unchanged; the LME aluminum canceled warrants are 110,250 tons, up 67,400 tons [2]. - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 20,350 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the main - second - continuous contract spread is - 45 yuan, down 50 yuan; the main contract position is 7,979 lots, up 154 lots [2]. Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum price is 20,750 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 20,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 20,790 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,010 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the basis of cast aluminum alloy is 500 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 40 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium/discount is - 50 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount is 3.24 US dollars/ton, down 0.53 US dollars; the basis of alumina is 77 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The alumina output is 756.49 million tons per month, down 18.44 million tons; the national alumina start - up rate is 82.93%, down 1.09%; the total alumina capacity utilization rate is 84.75%, up 0.45% [2]. - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 722.07 million tons per month, up 25.88 million tons; the alumina supply - demand balance is 16.32 million tons, down 10.82 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 16,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap is 15,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments is 160,494.61 tons per month, up 4,900.05 tons; the export volume is 79.39 tons per month, up 15.06 tons [2]. - The export volume of alumina is 23 million tons per month, up 6 million tons; the import volume is 12.59 million tons per month, up 2.47 million tons [2]. - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is 18.31 million tons, down 9.41 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 57.60 million tons per week, up 0.40 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum is 248,198.71 tons per month, up 55,884.22 tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,523.20 million tons per month, unchanged [2]. - The export volume of primary aluminum is 40,987.71 tons per month, up 21,416.99 tons; the electrolytic aluminum start - up rate is 98.11%, up 0.33% [2]. - The aluminum product output is 548.37 million tons per month, down 39 million tons; the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 53.40 million tons per month, down 0.60 million tons [2]. - The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 62.32 million tons per month, up 0.43 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.49 million tons per month, down 0.09 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The total built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126 million tons per month, unchanged; the national real estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.25 [2]. - The aluminum alloy output is 153.60 million tons per month, down 13.30 million tons; the automobile output is 251.02 million vehicles per month, down 29.84 million vehicles [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 6.04%, down 0.04%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 6.91%, unchanged [2]. - The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money is 8.59%, up 0.0027; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.08, up 0.0203 [2]. Industry News - From 2020 - 2024, the added values of China's equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries increased by an average of 7.9% and 8.7% annually, accounting for 34.6% and 16.3% of above - scale industries respectively. In 2024, the production of new energy vehicles exceeded 13 million, ranking first globally for 10 consecutive years [2]. - Since August, the central government has been promoting urban renewal. The real estate industry is shifting from "scale expansion" to "quality + service" [2]. - China is upgrading from the "world factory" to the "global supply - chain hub". 80 national - level advanced manufacturing clusters cover high - end equipment and new energy fields, with a 37% penetration rate of AI in the logistics supply - chain [2]. - In August, the CPI was flat month - on - month and down 0.4% year - on - year. The core CPI rose 0.9% year - on - year. The PPI was flat month - on - month and down 2.9% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline [2]. - The US non - farm employment was revised down by 911,000, which may lead to Fed rate cuts [2].
瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20250910
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-10 08:59