农产品早报-20250911

Report General Information - Report Title: Agricultural Products Morning Report [1] - Report Date: September 11, 2025 [2] - Report Team: Research Center Agricultural Products Team [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Corn: In the short - term, new - season corn is about to be listed, market sentiment is cautious, and port spot prices are weak, causing the futures price to decline. Supply increase is limited, so there is no expectation of a sharp drop. In the long - term, with increased production and lower costs, prices are expected to decline until consumption improves or farmers show reluctance to sell [4]. - Starch: Near the end of the season, spot prices continue to decline. In the short - term, it fluctuates with raw material prices, and high inventory pressures prices. In the long - term, high inventory restricts price adjustment space, and new - season raw material cost expectations are lower [4]. - Sugar: Internationally, Brazil is in the peak crushing period, pressuring international sugar prices. Domestic prices follow the international market, with imported sugar arriving and processed sugar prices dropping [6]. - Cotton: It has entered a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. Without major macro - risks, the April low may be the long - term bottom, and the downside space is limited [7]. - Eggs: Due to reduced mid - autumn festival stocking demand and high supply, egg prices fell in early August. Spot prices rebounded this week, but high cold - storage egg inventory and slow chicken culling will suppress the rebound [10]. - Apples: New - season apple production may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and prices are stable. Attention should be paid to the final production after bag - removal [13]. - Pigs: The price is in a range - bound oscillation. There are policy expectations for a production inflection point next year and seasonal demand support, but mid - term supply pressure remains due to insufficient production capacity reduction. Pay attention to factors such as slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [13] Summary by Commodity Corn and Starch - Price Data: From September 4 - 10, for corn, the price in Jinzhou decreased by 10, and the basis increased by 7. For starch, the basis decreased by 78, and the processing profit decreased by 3 [3]. - Market Analysis: Corn auctions had a slight improvement in trading volume, but the impact was limited. New - season corn is about to be listed, and the market is cautious. Starch prices are expected to continue to decline, and enterprises will try to clear inventory [4]. Sugar - Price Data: From September 4 - 10, the spot price in Kunming increased by 15, the basis decreased by 17, and the import profit decreased by 24. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 205 [6]. - Market Analysis: Brazil's peak crushing period is pressuring international sugar prices, and domestic prices are following the trend with imported sugar arriving [6]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn - Price Data: From September 4 - 10, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 25, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 137. The 32S spinning profit increased by 27 [7]. - Market Analysis: Cotton has entered a consolidation phase, and the downside space is limited without major macro - risks [7]. Eggs - Price Data: From September 4 - 10, the price in Shandong increased by 0.10, and the basis increased by 91. The price of white - feather broilers decreased by 0.10, and the price of pigs increased by 0.05 [9]. - Market Analysis: Reduced mid - autumn festival stocking demand and high supply led to price drops in early August. Spot prices rebounded this week, but high cold - storage egg inventory and slow chicken culling will suppress the rebound [10]. Apples - Price Data: From September 4 - 10, the national inventory decreased by 97, Shandong inventory decreased by 42, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 170 [13]. - Market Analysis: New - season apple production may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and prices are stable. Attention should be paid to the final production after bag - removal [13]. Pigs - Price Data: From September 4 - 10, the price in Hubei Xiangyang, Shandong Linyi, Anhui Hefei, and Jiangsu Nantong decreased by 0.10, and the basis decreased by 85 [13]. - Market Analysis: The price is in a range - bound oscillation. There are policy expectations for a production inflection point next year and seasonal demand support, but mid - term supply pressure remains due to insufficient production capacity reduction. Pay attention to factors such as slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [13]