芳烃橡胶早报-20250911

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the PTA market, near - term TA inventory continues to decline, but its structure and profitability are weakening. There may be no significant improvement in polyester performance and new PTA production capacity is expected. With the expectation of future inventory build - up, the willingness to hold goods is weak. However, the processing fee has reached a very low level, and as PX supply gradually recovers, there is an opportunity to expand the processing fee by buying at low prices [2]. - For MEG, near - term domestic oil - based production increases, coal - based production declines slightly, and overall load decreases. Overseas maintenance increases. The port inventory continues to decline at the beginning of the week and then rebounds. The downstream inventory level decreases, and the basis strengthens. Although the basis has strengthened significantly due to continuous inventory reduction in the near term, there is still an expectation of inventory build - up in the far term. The market is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of some devices [11]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up rate has increased, sales have weakened, and inventory has remained stable. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn has increased slightly, raw material inventory has rebounded, and finished - product inventory has continued to accumulate with weak profitability. In the future, the start - up rate is expected to remain high, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [11]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber remains stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [11]. Summary by Related Categories PTA - Price and Index Changes: The price of naphtha increased by 1.1, PX CFR Taiwan increased by 6, PTA internal - market spot price increased by 20, POY 150D/48F decreased by 80, PTA processing fee increased by 11, and polyester gross profit decreased by 92. The PTA balance load and PTA load remained unchanged, and the number of warehouse receipts + valid forecasts decreased by 2809. The basis remained unchanged, and sales increased by 0.5 [2]. - Device Changes: Dushan Energy's 2.5 - million - ton device restarted [2]. MEG - Price and Index Changes: The MEG internal - market price decreased by 15, the MEG far - month price decreased by 12, the MEG coal - based profit decreased by 15, and other indicators remained unchanged [11]. - Device Changes: Shaanxi Weihua's 300,000 - ton device restarted [11]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Index Changes: The price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 30, the profit of pure polyester yarn decreased by 25, and the difference between cotton and polyester staple fiber decreased by 20 [11]. - Device Changes: No new device overhauls were reported, and the start - up rate increased to 93.9% [11]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - Price and Index Changes: The daily change of most prices was 0, with some exceptions such as the Shanghai 3L price remaining unchanged and the Thailand cup - lump rubber price remaining stable. The weekly change showed an increase in some prices, and the difference between some varieties also changed [11]. Styrene - Price and Index Changes: The price of styrene in Jiangsu increased by 15, the price of styrene in South China increased by 10, the EPS domestic profit decreased by 10, and the PS domestic profit decreased by 10 [14].