大越期货尿素早报-20250911

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of supply exceeding demand in China, with high daily production and inventory levels. Although the international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been significantly liberalized. The report expects the UR contract to trade sideways today [4]. - The main factors influencing the urea market are the international price and the marginal change in domestic demand, with the main risk being changes in export policies [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The urea futures price initially rose due to rumors of export liberalization but later declined as market sentiment cooled. Current daily production and operating rates are high, and inventory is at a high level. Industrial demand from compound fertilizers and melamine has slightly rebounded, while agricultural demand has reached a short - term peak. The overall supply in the domestic market far exceeds demand, and export profits are strong, but the export policy has not been significantly liberalized. The spot price of the delivery product is 1760 (unchanged), indicating a generally bearish fundamental outlook [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 91, with a premium - discount ratio of 5.2%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.41 million tons (+0.8), which is bearish [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the UR main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. - Expectation: The main contract of urea is trading sideways. The international urea price is strong, but the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The domestic supply still far exceeds demand, so the UR is expected to trade sideways today [4]. - Leverage Factors: Bullish factors include the strong international price; bearish factors include high operating rates and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | The spot price of the delivery product is 1760 (unchanged), Shandong spot is 1760 (unchanged), Henan spot is 1770 (unchanged), and FOB China is 2920 [6]. | | Futures Market | The price of the 01 contract is 1669 (-14), the basis is 91 (+14), the UR05 price is 1719 (-14), and the UR09 price is 1613 (-11) [6]. | | Inventory | The warehouse receipt is 8897 (+54), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.41 million tons (unchanged), UR factory inventory is 917,000 tons (unchanged), and UR port inventory is 493,000 tons (unchanged) [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - on - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown an overall upward trend, but the import dependence has gradually decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023, and then increased slightly to 9.5% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9].