建信期货原油日报-20250911

Report Information - Industry: Crude Oil [1] - Date: September 11, 2025 [2] Core View - Geopolitical situation has not affected crude oil supply, and the market is calmer after the Israel-Iran conflict. OPEC+ continues to increase production, which is marginally bearish, so the outlook for oil prices is mainly bearish [7] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Quotes: WTI's opening price was $61.80, closing at $62.19, with a high of $62.98, a low of $61.73, a rise of 0.93%, and a trading volume of 12.62 million lots. Brent's opening price was $66.23, closing at $66.53, with a high of $67.38, a low of $66.12, a rise of 0.77%, and a trading volume of 30.92 million lots. SC's opening price was 483 yuan/barrel, closing at 486.2 yuan/barrel, with a high of 489.4 yuan/barrel, a low of 481.9 yuan/barrel, a rise of 0.58%, and a trading volume of 10.34 million lots [6] - News: Israel raided Qatar to target Hamas leaders, but oil prices showed a pattern of rising and then falling. OPEC+ members submitted a new compensation production cut plan, reducing this year's production cut and strengthening that of 2026, with an overall increase in the total production cut. Kazakhstan's production cut will increase sharply after February 2026, but its implementation is questionable, which is bearish for the near - term supply side. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day starting from October to gradually lift the 1.65 million barrels per day production cut agreed in April 2023. The production increase rate has slowed down, and it is expected to take one year to fully reach the 1.65 million barrels per day increase. Since the market is in a supply - surplus situation in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2026, the production increase is still marginally bearish for the oil market fundamentals [6][7] Industry News - The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that more sanctions should be imposed on Russia, including accelerating the phase - out of Russian fossil fuels and considering sanctions on the oil shadow fleet and third countries [8] - Deutsche Bank expects the WTI crude oil price to remain at $62 per barrel, $3 lower than Brent (the previous forecast for 2026 was $67) [8] - HSBC maintains its forecast of $65 per barrel for Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter of 2025, but the downside risk due to increased market supply surplus is rising [8] - According to the Financial Times, Trump has asked the EU to impose tariffs on countries importing Russian crude oil [8] Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption, with data sources from EIA, Bloomberg, and Wind [11][12][15]