建信期货工业硅日报-20250911

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: September 11, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The policy-driven for industrial silicon is limited. After the rebound of spot prices, the profit of production devices turns positive, leading to continuous resumption and increase in production. The monthly output in September will exceed 400,000 tons, nearly 80,000 tons more than that in June. The demand increment is still mainly contributed by the polysilicon sector, with an expected output of 125,000 tons in September, nearly 30,000 tons more than that in June. The organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and export parts are expected to remain stable, with a total monthly demand of 360,000 tons. The pressure of supply-demand imbalance has not been effectively alleviated, and there is no inventory reduction drive in the market. The spot price remains stable, and the futures price rebounds with reduced positions around 8,200, with the low-level range being tested four times and showing strong support. Overall, it continues to fluctuate widely [4]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market performance: The industrial silicon futures price fluctuates. The closing price of Si2511 is 8,665 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.58%. The trading volume is 622,948 lots, and the open interest is 278,065 lots, a net decrease of 7,975 lots [4]. - Spot price: The price of Sichuan 553 is 8,800 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan 553 is 8,550 yuan/ton; the price of Inner Mongolia 421 is 9,400 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 is 9,150 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 is 9,600 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market News - On September 10, the futures warehouse receipt volume of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,045 lots, a net increase of 90 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - According to customs data, in July 2025, the export volume of metallic silicon was 74,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 8.32% and a year-on-year increase of 36.75%. From January to July 2025, China's total export volume of metallic silicon was 414,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.04% [5]. - Data shows that from January to July 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic reached 1,109.6 GW, and the newly installed capacity from January to July was 223.25 GW. In July, the newly installed capacity was 11 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5].