建信期货生猪日报-20250911

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: September 11, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures: On the 10th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and then fluctuated higher, closing with a positive line. The highest was 13,400 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,210 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,315 yuan/ton, up 0.64% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,362 lots to 194,143 lots [9]. - Spot: On the 10th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 13.31 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day [9]. Market Analysis - Supply: In September, the planned sales volume of sample breeding enterprises was 25.7 million heads, an increase of 970,000 heads or 3.92% compared with the actual slaughter in August, with a daily average increase of 7.39%. The slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens remains high. The slaughter weight decreased slightly. In the long term, the slaughter before the Spring Festival may still maintain a slight growth trend [10]. - Demand: The price difference between fat and standard pigs slightly declined, and second - fattening was mainly in a wait - and - see state, providing weak support for prices. With the start of schools in various regions and the cooling weather in some areas, terminal consumption by residents may increase. The orders of slaughtering enterprises slightly increased, the slaughter progress was faster, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises slightly increased. On September 10th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 147,700 heads, basically a decrease of 10,000 heads from the previous day, a week - on - week decrease of 21,000 heads, and a month - on - month increase of 95,000 heads [10]. Overall Situation - Spot: With the start of schools and the cooling weather, terminal demand has increased, but the supply pressure of slaughter is still relatively greater. The overall supply - demand situation is loose, and prices remain weak [10]. - Futures: The supply of live pigs before the Spring Festival is expected to maintain a slight increase. The 2511 and 2601 contracts belong to the peak - demand contracts, and the supply - demand margin may improve. However, the current spot supply pressure is still large, and they are mainly fluctuating weakly due to the drag of the weak spot market [10]. Group 3: Industry News - As of September 4th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig was 98.7 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 23 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 112.8 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/head [11][13] Group 4: Data Overview - On the week of September 4th, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 425 yuan/head, a decrease of 19 yuan/head from the previous week [16]. - On the week of September 4th, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.19 yuan/jin, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan/jin [16]. - The cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg this week was 13.42 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 13.69 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.13 yuan/kg from the previous week [16]. - On the week of September 5th, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 31.27%, an increase of 2.00 percentage points from the previous week and 5.54 percentage points year - on - year. The operating rate within the week fluctuated in the range of 30.18 - 31.75 [16]. - As of the week of September 4th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 128.23 kg, an increase of 0.4 kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.31% [16].