贵金属日评-20250911

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given report. 2. Core View of the Report - The gold price has started a new round of upward trend, and this rally may continue until the spring and summer of 2026. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset in precious metal trading, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. Silver, with strong industrial attributes, will also rise following the gold price and may outperform gold in terms of gains due to its high volatility [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Conditions and Outlook - Intra - day Market: As of March 2025, the US non - farm payrolls data for the past year was revised down by 911,000, indicating the weakness of the US job market before Trump's tariff policy. This increases the pressure on the Fed to restart the rate - cutting process. After the negative news was digested, the market shifted its focus to the US inflation data for August. Gold and silver prices first rose and then fell but remained relatively strong overall. On the 10th Asian session, the London gold price rebounded slightly to $3,650 per ounce. The mainstream market expectation is that the overall CPI and core CPI in the US in August will increase by 2.9% and 3.1% year - on - year respectively [4]. - Medium - term Market: From late April to early August, the London gold price fluctuated widely between $3,100 - $3,500 per ounce to digest the over - valuation pressure. Since August, the US employment and inflation situation supports the Fed to restart the rate - cutting process. Under Trump's pressure, the Fed's rate - cutting pace may be faster than required by the employment and inflation situation, and geopolitical risks continue to provide safe - haven demand for gold. From late August to early September, safe - haven demand, liquidity premium and currency - pricing factors jointly pushed the gold price above the $3,500 per - ounce mark [5]. 3.2 Precious Metal Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D contracts, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [7][9][11]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Israel launched an air strike on a Hamas leader in Qatar on Tuesday, escalating its military operations in the Middle East. This action has received strong negative responses worldwide, and the UN Secretary - General has condemned it [17]. - Apple launched a series of upgraded new iPhone models, including the thinner and lighter iPhone Air. It maintained stable prices despite the impact of Trump's tariff hikes on company profits. It also released the iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro, new - version AirPods Pro wireless earphones, and introduced a blood pressure monitoring function in the new - version Apple Watch [17]. - US President Trump stated that the US government is continuing to negotiate with India to resolve trade barriers between the two countries. According to the Financial Times, Trump has urged the EU to impose a 100% tariff on China and India as a strategy to pressure Russian President Putin [17].