大越期货燃料油早报-20250911

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The concern about the geopolitical situation in the Middle East due to Israel's attack on Hamas in Qatar supports oil prices. Fuel oil is expected to follow the upward trend of overnight crude oil driven by geopolitical factors. With the shipping industry approaching the Christmas stocking season, the increasing shipping demand will partially boost the fuel oil price. The FU2510 is expected to trade in the range of 2780 - 2830, and the LU2511 in the range of 3340 - 3390 [3]. - The supply - side is affected by geopolitical risks, while the demand is neutral. The potential tightening of sanctions against Russia is a positive factor, while the optimism on the demand side needs verification and the relatively weak upstream crude oil prices are negative factors [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamental outlook is neutral as geopolitical concerns support oil prices. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is positive. The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 142 million barrels to 2330.9 million barrels in the week of September 3, which is negative. The price is near the 20 - day line which is flat, showing a neutral signal. The high - sulfur main position is short and the short positions are decreasing, negative; the low - sulfur main position is long and the long positions are decreasing, positive [3]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Positive factors include the potential tightening of sanctions against Russia. Negative factors are that the optimism on the demand side needs verification and the upstream crude oil prices are weak. The market is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Futures Prices: The FU main contract futures price rose from 2756 to 2789, an increase of 33 or 1.20%. The LU main contract futures price rose from 3367 to 3392, an increase of 25 or 0.74%. The FU basis increased from 91 to 127, an increase of 35 or 38.59%. The LU basis increased from 80 to 82, an increase of 2 or 2.90% [5]. - Spot Prices: The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 4.00 to 478.00, a decrease of 0.83%. The price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 2.00 to 498.00, a decrease of 0.40%. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil increased by 7.72 to 396.89, an increase of 1.98%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil remained unchanged at 474.50. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil increased by 7.72 to 374.56, an increase of 2.10%. The price of Singapore diesel increased by 4.93 to 644.38, an increase of 0.77% [6]. 3.4 Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 142 million barrels to 2330.9 million barrels in the week of September 3. From June 25 to September 3, the inventory showed fluctuations, with decreases in some weeks and increases in others [3][8]. 3.5 Spread Data - The report presents the high - and low - sulfur futures spread, but specific numerical analysis of the spread is not provided [12].