原油成品油早报-20250911

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices declined. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October and gradually increase production by 1.65 million barrels of oil per month until August 2026, worsening the fourth - quarter crude oil balance sheet. Brent and WTI crude oil spreads weakened, while the Dubai near - month spread strengthened. Refining margins in Europe and the US increased significantly, and gasoline and diesel cracks fluctuated upwards. Globally, oil product inventories increased slightly. The fourth - quarter crude oil balance sheet is expected to have a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day, and in 2026, the surplus is expected to be between 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day. It is estimated that refinery maintenance in October will exceed previous years, pressuring crude oil spreads. The absolute price of crude oil is expected to fall to a central range of $55 - 60 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitics and sanctions on Iran and Russia's production cuts [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From September 4 to 10, 2025, WTI prices increased by $1.04, BRENT by $1.10, and DUBAI by $0.91. Other related prices such as NYMEX RB, HO - BRT, etc., also showed corresponding changes. For domestic data, SC increased by 3.40, and domestic gasoline - BRT decreased by 68.00 [3] 2. Daily News - Israel's attack and US pressure on the EU pushed up oil prices. The reaction of Qatar is crucial. Meanwhile, the risk of Russian supply disruptions due to Ukraine's attacks and Western sanctions also supported oil prices. Russia's crude oil exports reached a three - month high, with the four - week average up 4% to about 3.34 million barrels per day, and the seven - day data showing an increase of 200,000 barrels per day to 3.9 million barrels per day [3] 3. Regional Fundamentals - From August 22 - 29, the operating rate of major refineries and Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, and both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated weakly, and that of local refineries decreased month - on - month [6] 4. EIA Report - In the week of September 5, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.139 million barrels per day to 2.745 million barrels per day, domestic production increased by 72,000 barrels to 13.495 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.939 million barrels to 425 million barrels (a 0.94% increase), strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 514,000 barrels to 405.2 million barrels (a 0.13% increase), and commercial crude oil imports decreased by 471,000 barrels per day to 6.271 million barrels per day. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased by 1.97% year - on - year [14]