永安期货：有色早报-20250911

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000. Domestic copper consumption is expected to be boosted in the peak season, and attention should be paid to the price support at 78,500 - 79,500 for Shanghai copper [1] - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable. Pay attention to demand, hold on dips under the low - inventory pattern, and pay attention to far - month spreads and domestic - overseas reverse arbitrage [1] - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. The current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may further diverge. Short - term is supported by interest - rate cut expectations, and medium - long - term is for short - position allocation. Hold domestic - overseas positive arbitrage and pay attention to the 10 - 12 positive arbitrage opportunity [2] - The short - term fundamentals of nickel are weak, and the geopolitical risk in Indonesia has eased. Continued attention is needed [3][4] - The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak, and the short - term macro follows the anti - involution expectations [5] - Lead prices oscillated this week. It is expected that next week's lead prices will remain in a low - level oscillation in the range of 16,800 - 16,900 [6] - Tin prices fluctuated narrowly this week. The domestic fundamentals are in a short - term supply - demand double - weak state. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see; medium - long - term, hold on dips near the cost line [6] - The short - and medium - term supply - demand of industrial silicon is in a tight balance, and the medium - long - term outlook is for bottom - range oscillation [6] - The spot supply of lithium carbonate is sufficient, and the price is supported during the peak season. Before the supply - side disturbance materializes, the price has strong downward support [8] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Market: This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000, and the domestic stock market volatility increased. Overseas, the interest - rate cut expectation in the US supported commodity prices [1] - Fundamentals: The spread between scrap and refined copper slightly rebounded. The downstream is expected to enter the peak season in September, with a slight increase in the start - up rate. The supply side has some maintenance and production cuts [1] - Recommendation: Pay attention to the price support at 78,500 - 79,500 for Shanghai copper [1] Aluminum - Supply and Demand: Supply increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increment from January to July. Downstream start - up improved, but overseas demand declined significantly [1] - Inventory: Inventory is expected to decline in September [1] - Recommendation: The short - term fundamentals are acceptable. Pay attention to demand, hold on dips under the low - inventory pattern, and pay attention to far - month spreads and domestic - overseas reverse arbitrage [1] Zinc - Supply: Domestic TC decreased slightly, and imported TC increased. September has concentrated maintenance, with a slight decline in smelting output. Overseas quarterly mine supply increased more than expected, and zinc ore imports in July exceeded 500,000 tons [2] - Demand: Domestic demand is seasonally weak but has some resilience; overseas, European demand is average, and some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees [2] - Inventory: Domestic social inventory oscillated upwards, and overseas LME inventory decreased rapidly [2] - Strategy: Short - term is supported by interest - rate cut expectations, and medium - long - term is for short - position allocation. Hold domestic - overseas positive arbitrage and pay attention to the 10 - 12 positive arbitrage opportunity [2] Nickel - Supply: Pure nickel production remained at a high level [4] - Demand: Overall demand was weak, and the premium was stable recently [4] - Inventory: Domestic inventory increased slightly, and overseas inventory increased due to warehouse receipts [4] - Situation: The short - term fundamentals are weak, the geopolitical risk in Indonesia has eased, and continued attention is needed [3][4] Stainless Steel - Supply: Steel mills in the north are expected to resume production gradually due to the military parade [5] - Demand: Demand is mainly for rigid needs [5] - Cost: Nickel - iron prices remained stable, and chrome - iron prices increased slightly [5] - Inventory: Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan remained stable, and warehouse receipts decreased slightly [5] - Situation: The fundamentals remain weak, and the short - term macro follows the anti - involution expectations [5] Lead - Supply: Scrap volume was weak year - on - year. Due to the expansion of recycling plants, waste batteries were in short supply. Refined ore production increased from April to August, but there was a supply shortage due to smelting profits [6] - Demand: Battery finished - product inventory was high. The battery start - up rate increased this week, but the market was not in a peak - season state [6] - Inventory: The exchange inventory reached a historical high of nearly 70,000 tons. The supply is expected to be flat in September [6] - Price Forecast: It is expected that next week's lead prices will remain in a low - level oscillation in the range of 16,800 - 16,900 [6] Tin - Supply: The processing fee at the mine end was at a low level. Some domestic smelters cut production, and Yunnan smelters started regular maintenance this weekend. Overseas, there are signals of复产 in Wa State, but large - scale exports are difficult before October [6] - Demand: Solder demand has limited elasticity. There is an expectation of a peak season for terminal electronic consumption, but the growth rate of photovoltaics is expected to decline. Domestic inventory decreased slightly, and overseas consumption was strong with low LME inventory [6] - Situation: The domestic fundamentals are in a short - term supply - demand double - weak state. Pay attention to the possible supply - demand mismatch from September to October and the impact of interest - rate cut expectations on non - ferrous metals [6] - Recommendation: Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see; medium - long - term, hold on dips near the cost line [6] Industrial Silicon - Supply: The resumption of production of Xinjiang's leading enterprises was slow. Sichuan and Yunnan had stable production, and some Xinjiang silicon plants had plans to increase production later [6] - Situation: The short - and medium - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the medium - long - term outlook is for bottom - range oscillation [6] Lithium Carbonate - Price: The futures price oscillated this week, and the basis started to strengthen slightly [8] - Supply and Demand: The current spot supply is sufficient, and downstream restocking during the peak season is good. The core contradiction is the supply - side compliance disturbance in the context of over - capacity [8] - Inventory: The monthly balance has turned to continuous inventory reduction, but the reduction amplitude is small compared to the existing inventory [8] - Price Outlook: Before the supply - side disturbance materializes, the price has strong downward support during the peak season [8]