PTA、MEG早报-20250911

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures slightly rose yesterday, with the spot market's negotiation atmosphere being average and the spot basis remaining stable. There were a small number of polyester factories making bids. In September, the transaction was at a discount of 60 - 65 to the 01 contract, and in October, the goods were traded at a discount of 45 to the 01 contract. The current mainstream spot basis is at 01 - 63. The PTA factory inventory is 3.9 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 days. The 20 - day moving average is upward, but the closing price is below it. The net short position of the main contract is decreasing. Recently, PTA maintenance and restart are happening simultaneously, the spot market's liquidity is okay, the spot basis is weakening, and the regional basis is differentiating. The PTA processing margin has been compressed to below 200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the results of the OPEC+ meeting this weekend and the changes in polyester upstream and downstream devices [5]. - MEG: On Wednesday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated within a narrow range, and the market negotiation was average. The spot was traded at a premium of 115 - 120 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The overseas market of ethylene glycol was weak. The weekly ethylene glycol load dropped below 74%, and the domestic supply recovery is delayed. There are still maintenance plans for some devices in October. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol from September to October has improved compared to expectations. The available spot of ethylene glycol will continue to be tight, and the spot basis will remain strong. Attention should be paid to polyester production and sales and device changes [6]. - Overall: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere is still cautious. In the short term, the commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for the upward rebound of the market, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA: The PTA futures slightly rose yesterday, with the spot market's negotiation atmosphere being average and the spot basis remaining stable. The PTA factory inventory increased slightly, and the net short position of the main contract decreased. The processing margin was compressed. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting and device changes [5]. - MEG: The price of ethylene glycol fluctuated within a narrow range on Wednesday, and the overseas market was weak. The weekly load dropped, and there are maintenance plans in October. The supply - demand structure has improved, and the spot basis will remain strong. Attention should be paid to polyester production and sales and device changes [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No relevant content provided 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, export, total demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes and supply - demand gaps [10]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, export, total demand, port inventory, and supply - demand differences from January 2024 to December 2025, along with the year - on - year changes [11]. - Price Data: It includes the prices and price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester filaments, and polyester staple fibers on September 10, 2025, compared with September 9, 2025, as well as the basis and profit data [12]. 3.5 Other Data - There are also data on bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization rates, inventories, PTA basis, MEG inter - month spreads, MEG basis, spot spreads, inventory analysis, polyester upstream and downstream operating rates, PTA processing fees, MEG profits, and polyester fiber production margins from 2020 to 2025 [13][27][30][37][39][50][54][59][60]