甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250911

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views Methanol - The market is trading on the logic of port pressure being transmitted to the inland. Inland regions will have seasonal stocking demand and increased stocking from the new Lianhong plant, but continuous reverse flow from ports will impact inland prices. Currently, the price is benchmarked against inland prices, and the inland situation is crucial. Xingxing is expected to resume operations in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will lower inland valuations. With average valuations and inventory and weak drivers, it's advisable to wait before bottom - fishing. Import variables such as India's purchase of Iranian methanol and unplanned maintenance should be monitored [2] Plastic (Polyethylene) - The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The basis for the 09 contract is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. International prices in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differentials are fluctuating, with LD weakening. In September, the number of maintenance activities is the same as the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US price quotes. The pressure from new plants in 2025 is significant, and the commissioning of new plants should be monitored [6] PP (Polypropylene) - Upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and mid - stream enterprises are reducing inventory. The basis is - 60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year, and non - standard price differentials are neutral. Prices in Europe and America are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are currently average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are more PDH plant maintenance activities, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [8] PVC - The basis for the 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Northwest plants are seasonally under maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high - production period in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. The profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether future export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [8] 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price Data: From September 4th to 10th, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price increased from 2255 to 2302, and the South China spot price increased from 2250 to 2290. Other regional prices also showed certain changes. The import profit remained at 323, and the main contract basis and MTO profit on the disk remained relatively stable [2] Plastic (Polyethylene) - Price Data: From September 4th to 10th, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 840. The prices of North China LL, East China LL, East China LD, and East China HD remained stable. The import profit remained around - 180 - 190, and the main futures price decreased slightly. The two - oil inventory remained at 67, and the warehouse receipts increased by 887 [6] PP (Polypropylene) - Price Data: From September 4th to 10th, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6590 to 6500 and then increased to 6650. The Northeast Asia propylene price remained at 760. The East China PP and North China PP prices showed minor fluctuations. The export profit remained around - 15, and the main futures price decreased slightly. The two - oil inventory remained at 67, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 64 [8] PVC - Price Data: From September 4th to 10th, the Northwest calcium carbide price increased from 2300 to 2400 and then remained stable. The Shandong caustic soda price increased from 882 to 902 and then decreased to 897. The prices of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China, South China, and the Northwest, and ethylene - based PVC in East China remained relatively stable. The import price (CFR China) remained at 700, and other profit and basis data remained stable [8]