大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250911

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The manufacturing industry's prosperity has improved, with the official PMI in August at 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI at 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. However, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has become tense again due to the Israeli attack on the capital of Qatar on September 9th. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being formulated to address long - term overcapacity [4][8]. - For LLDPE, the overall fundamentals are neutral, with the spot price of the delivery product at 7220 (unchanged). The market is expected to be volatile today, with the demand for agricultural films recovering but still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory being neutral [4]. - For PP, the overall fundamentals are neutral, with the spot price of the delivery product at 6980 (unchanged). The market is expected to be volatile today, with new production capacity being put into operation recently and the demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving showing improvement expectations [8]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: Macroeconomic indicators show improved manufacturing prosperity. The demand for agricultural films is slowly recovering but is still weaker than usual, and other packaging films are mainly purchased as needed. The overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 6, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.1%, which is neutral [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 54.5 million tons (+3.5), which is bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today [4]. - Likely Factors: Cost support is a bullish factor, while weak demand is a bearish factor [6]. - Main Logic and Risks: The main logic is based on cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies. The main risk points are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [7]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - situation shows improved manufacturing prosperity. There is new production capacity, and the downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is expected to improve. The overall fundamentals are neutral [8]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 32, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.5%, which is neutral [8]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 57.5 million tons (-0.8), which is bearish [8]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [8]. - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [8]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today [8]. - Likely Factors: Cost support is a bullish factor, while weak demand is a bearish factor [10]. - Main Logic and Risks: The main logic is based on cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies. The main risk points are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [11]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4319.5 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [17]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [19].