沪锌期货早报-20250911

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc oscillate and rebound, closing with a positive line, accompanied by shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with the short - side reduction being more significant. Overall, it was a volume - shrinking rebound. As prices rebounded, long - position holders were eager to exit, while short - position holders were even more eager. In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate and consolidate. Technically, the price closed below the long - term moving average, with weak moving average support. The short - term KDJ indicator rose and was operating around the strength - weakness demarcation point. The trend indicator declined, with both long and short forces weakening, and the two sides starting to stalemate. The operation suggestion is that Shanghai Zinc ZN2510 will oscillate and consolidate [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, global zinc plate production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The basis is 22,140 for spot and - 75, which is neutral [2]. - On September 10, LME zinc inventory decreased by 200 tons to 50,825 tons compared to the previous day, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,648 tons to 44,329 tons compared to the previous day, which is neutral [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed an oscillating and rebounding trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, which is a bearish factor [2]. - The main net position is long, but the long - position decreased, which is a bullish factor [2]. 3.2 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Market on September 10 - The trading volume of zinc futures on September 10 was 130,767 lots, with a turnover of 1.44976756 billion yuan. The open interest was 221,749 lots, a decrease of 3,963 lots compared to the previous day [3]. 3.3 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on September 10 - The price of zinc concentrate in Chenzhou was 16,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingot was 22,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheet was 4,041 yuan/unit, a decrease of 2 yuan/unit; the price of galvanized pipe was 4,451 yuan/unit, a decrease of 2 yuan/unit; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20,600 yuan/unit, unchanged; the price of secondary zinc oxide in Linzhou was 7,857 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 3.4 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (August 28 - September 8, 2025) - On September 8, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in China's main markets was 1.399 million tons, an increase of 0.065 million tons compared to September 1 and an increase of 0.014 million tons compared to September 4 [5]. 3.5 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on September 10 - The total zinc warrants on September 10 were 44,329 tons, an increase of 1,648 tons compared to the previous day. Among them, the warrants in Guangdong increased by 1,322 tons, and those in Tianjin increased by 326 tons [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on September 10 - On September 10, LME zinc inventory decreased by 200 tons to 50,825 tons compared to the previous day. The registered warrants were 35,450 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 15,375 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 30.25% [7]. 3.7 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on September 8 - The price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in various regions increased by 80 yuan/ton on September 8 [8]. 3.8 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on September 8 - The price of 0 zinc ingots from various smelters increased by 120 yuan/ton on September 8 [12]. 3.9 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - In June 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production exceeded the plan by 2.63%, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production for July was 470,300 tons [14]. 3.10 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on September 8 - The processing fees for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different domestic regions ranged from 3,400 to 4,200 yuan/metal ton, and the processing fee for imported 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 80 - 100 US dollars/dry ton [16]. 3.11 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on September 10 - For the contract code zn2510, the total trading volume of members was 133,687 lots, a decrease of 27,362 lots compared to the previous day. The total long - position was 68,560 lots, a decrease of 3,754 lots compared to the previous day, and the total short - position was 68,354 lots, a decrease of 4,735 lots compared to the previous day [17].