大越期货纯碱早报-20250911

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: There are few alkali plant overhauls, supply remains high; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass declines, and terminal demand weakens. The soda ash plant inventory is at a historical high, indicating a bearish situation [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1190 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1281 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 91 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 182.21 tons, a 2.43% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][37]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: Given the supply - demand situation, it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - The peak overhaul period within the year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3]. Bearish Factors - Since 2023, the soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry production is at a historical high [4]. - The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash [4]. - The positive sentiment of macro - policies has faded [4]. Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1278 | 1210 | - 68 | | Current Value | 1281 | 1190 | - 91 | | Change Rate | 0.23% | - 1.65% | 33.82% | [6] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1190 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan decrease from the previous day [12]. Fundamentals - Supply - Production profit: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 97.20 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production process is - 86 yuan/ton. The production profit has rebounded from a historical low [15]. -开工率 and production: The weekly industry operating rate is 75.92%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly production is 75.17 tons, including 41.12 tons of heavy soda ash, with production at a historical high [18][20]. - Capacity changes: In 2023, the new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 750 tons, with 100 tons actually put into production [22]. Fundamentals - Demand - Sales - to - production ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio is 97.80% [25]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 16.02 tons, and the operating rate is 75.92% and stable. The price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume continues to decline significantly [28][34]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 182.21 tons, a 2.43% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [37]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The supply - demand balance sheets from 2017 to 2024E show the changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [38].