Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton global sugar supply gap in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. Conab estimates Brazil's central - southern 25/26 sugar production at 40.6 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous estimate. As of July 2025, China's 24/25 sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, sales were 9.5498 million tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons, and 159,800 tons of syrup and premixes, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons, with a neutral overall situation [5]. - The basis of Liuzhou spot sugar is 435 (01 contract), showing a premium over the futures, which is bullish [5]. - As of the end of July in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.61 million tons, which is bullish [7]. - The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below it, which is bearish. The main position is bearish, with a reduction in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear, also bearish [7]. - The international raw sugar re - reached 16 cents in the night session. The domestic futures main contract 01 has support near the 5500 mark, and there may be a technical rebound after consecutive declines [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided in the content. 2. Daily Hints - Fundamental factors: The global sugar supply and demand situation is complex. Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season, with some predicting a supply surplus and others a small gap. China's domestic sugar consumption is good, and the inventory has decreased. The tariff on imported syrup has increased since January 2025 [5][8][10]. - Market indicators: The basis shows a premium, the inventory situation is favorable, but the technical indicators and main positions are bearish. The international raw sugar price has rebounded, and the domestic futures may have a technical rebound [5][6][7]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the content. 4. Fundamental Data - Global supply and demand: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton gap, while Czarnikow predicts a 470,000 - ton surplus, StoneX predicts a 121,000 - ton surplus, etc. [5][10][36]. - China's supply and demand: In 2025, China's sugar production, sales, imports, and consumption data are as follows: As of July, the 24/25 season's cumulative sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sales were 9.5498 million tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In July, 740,000 tons of sugar were imported, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons, and 159,800 tons of syrup and premixes were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons. The 25/26 China's sugar supply and demand balance table shows that production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption is 15.9 million tons, and imports are 5 million tons [5][10][38]. 5. Position Data - The main position is bearish, with a reduction in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear [7].
白糖早报-20250911
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-11 02:17