大越期货豆粕早报-20250911

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific information about the report industry investment rating provided in the text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Soybean Meal: The short - term trend of soybean meal is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. The market is focused on the impact of US soybean planting weather and the game of Sino - US trade tariffs. The US soybean production outlook and Sino - US trade negotiations are still uncertain. The short - term price of soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3040 and 3100 [8]. - Soybeans: The short - term trend of domestic soybeans is affected by the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals. The domestic soybean A2511 is expected to oscillate between 3880 and 3980 [10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints There is no specific content for daily hints in the provided text. 2. Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term bullish for US soybeans. The US soybean market is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean growth and harvest, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in August. Affected by the relatively bullish data of the August USDA report and the rise of rapeseed meal, soybean meal is short - term oscillating and slightly bullish [12]. - The reduction of domestic pig - raising profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent recovery of soybean meal demand supports the price, and due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, soybean meal returns to the range - bound pattern [12]. - The inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal continues to rise. Affected by the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the variables of the Sino - US tariff war, soybean meal is short - term bullish and oscillating, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Soybean Meal: Bullish factors include slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and variable weather in US soybean - producing areas; bearish factors include high arrival volume of imported soybeans in September and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans [13]. - Soybeans: Bullish factors are the cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market and the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand; bearish factors are the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price in East China is 2960, with a basis of - 106, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil - mill soybean meal is 113.62 million tons, a 5.32% increase from last week and a 15.76% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - Soybeans: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of 289, indicating a premium to the futures. The inventory of oil - mill soybeans is 731.7 million tons, a 5% increase from last week and a 6.17% increase compared to the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - Soybean Meal: The main long positions are decreasing, but the capital is flowing in [8]. - Soybeans: The main long positions are increasing, but the capital is flowing out [10].