Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided reports do not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - Equity Index Futures: A-shares are experiencing an oscillating rebound with the technology sector leading the way. After a significant rally, A-shares may enter a high-level oscillating pattern. Wait for the volatility to further converge before confirming a better entry point [2][4]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market sentiment remains weak due to the tightening of funds. The short - term bond market may still be sensitive to negative news. Investors are advised to wait and see, paying attention to the movement of funds and the market's expectation of loose monetary policy [5][7]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical events and interest - rate cut expectations have been digested. Precious metals are in a high - level oscillating state. Gold is recommended to be bought cautiously at low prices, and silver can be traded in a band within the range of $40 - 42 [8][9][10]. - Container Shipping Futures: The market is expected to be weakly oscillating. Consider shorting the October contract or engaging in a spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [11][12]. - Non - ferrous Metals: - Copper: The price is expected to oscillate. The short - term interest - rate cut boosts the financial attribute of copper, but the upside is limited. The long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support [13][17]. - Alumina: The price is expected to oscillate weakly. Mid - term, consider shorting at high prices. The market is in a state of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand [18][20]. - Aluminum: The price is expected to oscillate widely around the actual fulfillment of peak - season demand. The macro - environment provides support, while the fundamental improvement is not strong [21][22]. - Aluminum Alloy: The price is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the supply of scrap aluminum and the inflection point of inventory [23][24]. - Zinc: The price is expected to oscillate. The supply is expected to be loose, and the price upside is limited, while the low inventory provides support [25][28]. - Tin: The price is expected to oscillate widely. The supply is tight, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the import of tin ore from Myanmar [28][31]. - Nickel: The price is expected to adjust within a range. The macro - environment is generally stable, and the cost provides some support, but the mid - term supply is abundant [31][33]. - Stainless Steel: The price is expected to oscillate within a range. The raw material cost provides support, but the demand is weak [34][37]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price is expected to oscillate and consolidate. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the market is affected by news [38][41]. - Black Metals: - Steel: The steel price is weak. The rebar and hot - rolled coil should pay attention to the support levels around 3100 and 3300 respectively. The steel supply and demand have not deteriorated to the negative feedback stage [41][43]. - Iron Ore: The price is expected to oscillate and be bullish. The supply is expected to recover, and the demand will increase. The low - level port inventory provides support [45][46]. - Coking Coal: The price is expected to oscillate. The coal mines are resuming production, and the supply and demand are easing. The price may continue to decline in September [47][49]. - Coke: The price is expected to oscillate. The first round of price cuts has been implemented, and there is still room for further cuts. The supply will gradually become loose [50][52]. - Agricultural Products: - Meal Products: The high - yield expectation of US soybeans suppresses the price, but the domestic cost provides support. The downside of domestic meal products is limited [53][55]. - Live Pigs: The market supply - demand contradiction is limited. The price has limited room to fall, but the overall supply - demand pressure is still large [56][57]. - Corn: The short - term supply and demand of corn are weak, and the price is under pressure. The mid - term trend is weak [58][59]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures: - Equity Index Futures: A-shares showed an oscillating rebound on Wednesday. The TMT sector was strong, while the chemical sector corrected. The four major equity index futures contracts had mixed performances. The market is affected by domestic and overseas news, and the monetary policy in the second half of the year is crucial for the equity market [2][3][4]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The yield of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose. The capital is tightening, and the bond market sentiment is weak. Pay attention to the central bank's subsequent attitude [5][6][7]. - Precious Metals: US 8 - month PPI data was lower than expected, and the demand for the 10 - year Treasury bond auction was strong. Gold and silver prices showed a high - level oscillation. The Fed's policy path and geopolitical events affect the price. Gold is recommended to be bought cautiously at low prices, and silver can be traded in a band [8][9][10]. - Container Shipping Futures: The spot price of container shipping continued to decline slowly. The SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index showed different trends. The supply of container ships increased, and the demand was affected by the PMI of different regions. The futures price is expected to be weakly oscillating [11][12]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals: - Copper: The spot price of copper declined slightly. The US 8 - month PPI data boosted the interest - rate cut expectation. The supply of copper concentrate was tight, and the demand was marginally improved. The inventory situation was mixed. The copper price is affected by the macro - environment and fundamentals, and is expected to oscillate [13][15][17]. - Alumina: The spot price of alumina declined. The supply was high, the demand was weak, and the inventory was increasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and consider shorting at high prices in the mid - term [18][20]. - Aluminum: The spot price of aluminum declined slightly. The supply of electrolytic aluminum was high, and the demand was marginally improved. The inventory situation was mixed. The aluminum price is affected by the macro - environment and fundamentals, and is expected to oscillate around the peak - season demand [20][21][22]. - Aluminum Alloy: The spot price of aluminum alloy was stable. The supply was affected by the season, and the demand was marginally improved. The inventory was increasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and pay attention to the supply of scrap aluminum [23][24]. - Zinc: The spot price of zinc declined. The supply of zinc ore was loose, and the demand was about to enter the peak season. The inventory situation was mixed. The zinc price is expected to oscillate, and the upside is limited [25][27][28]. - Tin: The spot price of tin declined slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and pay attention to the import of tin ore from Myanmar [28][30][31]. - Nickel: The spot price of nickel declined. The supply of refined nickel was high, and the demand was stable in some sectors and weak in others. The inventory situation was mixed. The price is expected to adjust within a range [31][32][33]. - Stainless Steel: The spot price of stainless steel was stable. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. The inventory was slowly decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, and pay attention to the raw material and demand [34][36][37]. - Lithium Carbonate: The spot price of lithium carbonate declined. The supply was affected by various factors, and the demand was stable. The inventory was decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, and pay attention to the news [38][39][41]. - Black Metals: - Steel: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different trends. The cost and profit situation of steel changed. The supply was affected by production restrictions and was expected to recover. The demand was in the off - season and was expected to improve seasonally. The inventory was increasing. The steel price is expected to be affected by the supply of coking coal [41][42][43]. - Iron Ore: The spot price of iron ore declined slightly. The futures price was stable. The supply decreased significantly, and the demand was expected to increase. The inventory situation was mixed. The price is expected to oscillate and be bullish [45][46]. - Coking Coal: The futures price of coking coal declined. The supply was affected by production restrictions and was expected to recover. The demand was expected to increase. The inventory was decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate and decline in September [47][48][49]. - Coke: The futures price of coke had a mixed performance. The first - round price cut was implemented, and there was still room for further cuts. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was expected to recover. The inventory situation was mixed. The price is expected to oscillate [50][51][52]. - Agricultural Products: - Meal Products: The domestic spot price of soybean meal declined slightly, and the trading volume increased. The spot price of rapeseed meal was stable, and the trading volume was zero. The high - yield expectation of US soybeans and various supply - demand factors affected the price. The domestic cost provides support [53][54][55]. - Live Pigs: The spot price of live pigs declined slightly. The inventory of breeding sows increased slightly, and the profit of different breeding modes changed. The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the price has limited room to fall [56][57]. - Corn: The spot price of corn had different trends in different regions. The inventory of old - season corn was tight, and the new - season corn was about to be listed. The demand was weak. The short - term supply and demand are weak, and the mid - term trend is weak [58][59].
广发早知道：汇总版-20250911
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-09-11 02:46