大越期货沥青期货早报-20250911

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the asphalt market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3429 - 3471 [7][9]. - The fundamentals are bullish, with the cost side supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. The basis is bullish as the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. The inventory situation is mixed, with social and factory inventories decreasing and port inventories increasing. The market sentiment is bearish in terms of the moving average and the net short position of the main contract [7][8][9]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include the relatively high cost of crude oil providing some support, while bearish factors are the lack of demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward trend in demand along with the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: In August 2025, the planned domestic asphalt production was 2413,000 tons, a 5.1% month - on - month decrease and a 17.1% year - on - year increase. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 30.501%, a 0.90 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month. The output of sample enterprises was 509,000 tons, a 2.86% month - on - month decrease, and the estimated device maintenance volume was 685,000 tons, a 0.44% month - on - month increase. Refineries have reduced production recently, which will ease supply pressure [7]. - Demand: The current demand for asphalt is below the historical average. The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, and road - modified asphalt is either decreasing or remaining flat and lower than the historical average, while the construction rate of waterproofing membranes has a slight increase but is still below the historical average [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 513.38 yuan/ton, a 3.00% month - on - month decrease. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 792.0771 yuan/ton, a 6.94% month - on - month increase. The loss in asphalt processing is decreasing, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking is increasing. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - Basis: On September 10, the spot price in Shandong was 3540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 90 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [9]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 1225,000 tons, a 3.54% month - on - month decrease; factory inventory is 642,000 tons, a 4.74% month - on - month decrease; port diluted asphalt inventory is 320,000 tons, a 68.42% month - on - month increase [9]. - Market: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20. The main contract has a net short position, and the short position is decreasing [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - Basis Trend: Charts show the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [18][19]. - Spread Analysis: - Main Contract Spread: Charts show the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [21][22]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: Charts show the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [24][25]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: Charts show the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [27][28][29]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: Charts show the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [31][33]. 3.3 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: - Asphalt Profit: A chart shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [36][37]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread: A chart shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [39][40][41]. - Supply - Side Analysis: - Shipment Volume: A chart shows the historical weekly shipment volumes of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [42][43]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: A chart shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [44][45]. - Production Volume: Charts show the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [47][48]. - Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production: A chart shows the historical price trends of Marine crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [51][53]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: A chart shows the historical asphalt production of local refineries from 2019 to 2025 [54][55]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: A chart shows the historical weekly capacity utilization rates of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [57][58]. - Estimated Maintenance Loss: A chart shows the historical estimated maintenance loss trends of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [59][60]. - Inventory Analysis: - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: Charts show the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [62][63][64]. - Social and Factory Inventories: Charts show the historical social and factory inventories of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [66][67]. - Factory Inventory Ratio: A chart shows the historical factory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [69][70]. - Import - Export Analysis: - Export and Import Trends: Charts show the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [72][73]. - Korean Asphalt Import Spread: A chart shows the historical import spread trends of Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [75][76][77]. - Demand - Side Analysis: - Petroleum Coke Production: A chart shows the historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [78][79]. - Apparent Consumption: A chart shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [81][82]. - Downstream Demand: Charts show the historical trends of downstream demand, including highway construction investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator working hours, and the sales of domestic excavators and road rollers from 2019 to 2025 [84][85][86][88][89]. - Asphalt Construction Rate: - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt: A chart shows the historical construction rates of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [93][94]. - By - Use Asphalt: Charts show the historical construction rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [96][97]. - Downstream Construction Conditions: Charts show the historical construction rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, and other downstream products from 2019 to 2025 [99][100][102]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: A table shows the monthly supply - demand balance of asphalt from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and demand [104][105].