大越期货菜粕早报-20250911

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 fluctuates in the range of 2520 - 2580. The market is affected by soybean meal trends, technical oscillations, and awaits the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term spot demand is in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market, but after the National Day, demand will enter the off - season, and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations are still uncertain. The market is expected to be in a volatile and slightly strong pattern in the short term [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in the 2520 - 2580 range. The market is influenced by multiple factors and is expected to be volatile and slightly strong in the short term [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the tight supply expectation in the spot market, with good demand expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. Geopolitical conflicts may still rise and support commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Likely Positive Factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. - Likely Negative Factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - Price and Basis: The spot price is 2600, and the basis is 67, indicating a premium over the futures, which is a positive factor. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.8 million tons, a 28% week - on - week decrease from 2.5 million tons last week and a 25% year - on - year decrease from 2.4 million tons last year, which is a positive factor. - Market Trends: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is a negative factor [9]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out, which is a negative factor [9].