大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250911

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 69,200 - 72,240 yuan/ton. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, with positive factors including manufacturers' shutdown and production - cut plans, a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include high - level supply from ore and salt lake ends with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [8][10][14][15][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,419 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.04%, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, the production was 85,240 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 86,730 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.75%. The import volume in August 2025 was 17,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.71% [8][10]. - Demand Side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 94,756 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.28%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,644 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.05%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be depleted [8][10]. - Cost Side: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 73,889 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 2.46%, with a production loss of 1,507 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lepidolite is 77,715 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1.46%, with a production loss of 7,321 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is generally higher than that at the ore end, and the production income is negative, with low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that at the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Other Indicators: - Base Difference: On September 10, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,450 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 2,730 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing a bullish signal [13]. - Inventory: The overall inventory is 140,092 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.73%, higher than the historical average. Among them, the smelter inventory is 39,475 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.90%, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory is 55,207 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.56%, higher than the historical average; other inventories are 45,410 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.91%, higher than the historical average [13]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish signal [13]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Lithium Carbonate Market Overview: - Price Changes: The prices of various lithium - related products such as spodumene, lepidolite concentrate, battery - grade lithium carbonate, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate have generally decreased. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) decreased from 879 to 849 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.41% [18]. - Supply - Side Data: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 66.41%. The daily production cost of spodumene decreased by 2.47% to 73,889 yuan/ton, and the monthly processing cost increased by 4.49% to 20,700 yuan/ton. The production cost of lepidolite also decreased, with the daily cost at 77,715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46% [20]. - Demand - Side Data: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4.96% to 264,720 tons, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 8.84% to 316,400 tons. The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 0.28% to 94,756 tons, and the weekly inventory of ternary materials decreased by 1.05% to 17,644 tons [20]. - Supply - Lithium Ore: - Price and Production: The price of lithium ore has shown certain fluctuations over the years. The production of domestic spodumene mines and lepidolite has different trends in different years. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has increased significantly, with the import volume from Australia increasing by 67.24% in a certain period [26]. - Self - Sufficiency Rate: The self - sufficiency rates of spodumene, lithium ore, and lepidolite have different trends over time [26]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore shows different situations in different months, with a tight supply - demand relationship in some months [28]. - Supply - Lithium Carbonate: - Production and Capacity: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate from different sources (spodumene, lepidolite, salt lake, and recycled materials) has different trends. The monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate have also changed over time. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in August 2025 was 85,240 tons [31]. - Import and Export: The import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile has decreased in a certain period. The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate shows different situations in different months, with a surplus in some months and a deficit in others [36][39]. - Supply - Lithium Hydroxide: - Production and Capacity Utilization: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has changed over time. The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting and causticizing) and the total production have different trends. The export volume of lithium hydroxide has also changed in different years [42]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide shows different situations in different months, with a surplus in some months and a deficit in others [45]. - Lithium Compound Cost and Profit: - Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials: The cost and profit of producing lithium carbonate from purchased spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and recycled materials have different trends over time. The processing cost of lithium ore and the profit of lithium carbonate import also show different situations [48][50]. - Profit of Lithium Hydroxide Processing: The profit and cost of processing lithium hydroxide by different methods (smelting and causticizing), the profit of converting lithium hydroxide to lithium carbonate, and the profit of exporting lithium hydroxide have different trends [53]. - Inventory: - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate from different sources (smelter, downstream, and others) have different trends. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts has also changed over time [55]. - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelter and downstream) has different trends [55]. - Demand - Lithium Battery: - Battery Price and Production: The price of lithium batteries has changed over time. The monthly production of battery cells for different purposes (power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, and energy storage) has also changed. The monthly output of power batteries has decreased in a certain period [59]. - Battery Cost and Inventory: The cost of battery cells has different trends. The inventory of lithium battery cells for different purposes (power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, and energy storage battery) has also changed [59][61]. - Demand - Ternary Precursor: - Price and Cost: The prices of different types of ternary precursors have changed over time. The cost and profit of ternary precursors also show different situations [64]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The monthly production of ternary precursors of different types (333, 523, 622, 811, NCA) and the total production have different trends. The capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors has also changed [64]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors shows different situations in different months, with a surplus in some months and a deficit in others [67]. - Demand - Ternary Material: - Price and Cost - Profit: The prices of different types of ternary materials have changed over time. The cost - profit trends of ternary materials also show different situations [70]. - Production and Inventory: The production of ternary materials has different trends. The weekly inventory of ternary materials has also changed [70][72]. - Demand - Lithium Iron Phosphate/Phosphoric Acid Iron: - Price and Cost - Profit: The prices of lithium iron phosphate and phosphoric acid iron have changed over time. The cost - profit trends of lithium iron phosphate also show different situations [74]. - Production and Inventory: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and phosphoric acid iron has different trends. The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate has also changed [77][79]. - Demand - New Energy Vehicle: - Production, Sales, and Export: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have different trends over time. The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased [82][83]. - Inventory and Retail - Wholesale Ratio: The inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers, as well as the retail - wholesale ratios of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles, have different trends [86].