广发期货日评-20250911

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - A-shares are experiencing a volatile rebound with the technology sector leading. After a significant increase, A-shares may enter a high-level volatile pattern. The direction of monetary policy in the second half of September is crucial for the equity market. [3] - The bond market sentiment is weak, with continued capital convergence and falling bond futures. There is a possibility of over - selling in the bond market, and the 10 - year bond yield may continue to rise. [3] - Precious metals are in a high - level volatile state after digesting geopolitical events and interest - rate cut expectations. [3] - Various commodities have different trends and trading suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - Equity Index Futures: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are 0.29%, - 0.06%, - 0.99%, and - 1.10% respectively. A-shares are in a volatile rebound, and after a large increase, they may enter a high - level volatile pattern. Wait for volatility to converge before entering the market. [3] - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market sentiment is weak, and the 10 - year bond yield has not stabilized at 1.8%. T2512 has broken through the previous low. Suggest investors to wait and see, and pay attention to changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term. [3] - Precious Metals: Gold can be bought cautiously at low levels, or short - sell out - of - the - money options to capture volatility decline. Silver can be traded in the range of $40 - 42, and also sell out - of - the - money options. [3] - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The main contract of EC is weakly volatile. Consider 12 - 10 spread arbitrage. [3] Black Metals - Steel: Steel prices remain weak. Pay attention to the support levels of 3100 for rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils. Long positions should exit and wait. [3] - Iron Ore: Shipments have dropped significantly from the high level, arrivals have decreased, and port clearance has slightly declined. The iron ore price is running strongly. Buy the 2601 contract at low levels in the range of 780 - 830, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage position. [3] - Coking Coal: Spot prices are weakly volatile, coal mines are resuming production and destocking. Short positions should take profit in the range of 1070 - 1170, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage position. [3] - Coke: The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, compressing coking profits with more room for cuts. Short positions should take profit in the range of 1550 - 1650, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coke arbitrage position. [3] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Weak US PPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations. Pay attention to Thursday's inflation data. The main contract reference range is 79000 - 81000. [3] - Alumina: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 2900 - 3200. [3] - Aluminum: The weekly start - up rate of processed products is continuously recovering. Pay attention to the fulfillment of peak - season demand. The main contract reference range is 20400 - 21000. [3] - Other Non - ferrous Metals: Each metal has its own reference price range and trading suggestions based on their fundamentals and market sentiment. [3] Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical risk premiums support the oil price rebound, but the loose supply - demand fundamentals limit the upside. It is recommended to wait and see. For options, wait for volatility to increase for spread - widening opportunities. [3] - Other Chemicals: Each chemical product has different supply - demand expectations, and corresponding trading suggestions are provided, such as range trading, short - selling, or waiting and seeing. [3] Agricultural Products - Grains and Oils: There is a bearish outlook for palm oil due to inventory growth and weak exports. Pay attention to the support levels of various agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and sugar. [3] - Livestock and Poultry: The pig market has limited supply - demand contradictions. The corn market has limited upward potential in the short term. [3] Special Commodities - Glass: News about production lines in Shahe has driven up the futures price. Pay attention to the actual progress. [3] - Rubber: After the macro - sentiment fades, the rubber price is falling in a volatile manner. Wait and see. [3] New Energy - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Pay attention to the Silicon Industry Conference. Due to news - related disturbances, the futures prices are falling. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Wait and see. [3] - Lithium Carbonate: Driven by news, the sentiment in the market has weakened significantly, but the fundamentals remain in a tight - balance state. Wait and see, and pay attention to the performance around 72,000. [3]